WTPZ43 KNHC 272102

TCDEP3

 

Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number  13

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182025

200 PM PDT Mon Oct 27 2025

 

Sonia is producing only intermittent convection over the low-level 

center. Previous convection that was displaced well north of the 

center has dissipated. Latest satellite intensity estimates have 

decreased and range from 30 to 35 kt from SAB, TAFB and UW-CIMSS. 

Using these estimates and the current satellite presentation, the 

initial intensity is lowered to 35 kt for this advisory.

 

The storm is moving westward at an estimated motion of 275/6 kt. 

This general motion should continue as the system weakens and is 

steered by the low-level wind flow. The latest NHC track forecast is 

near the previous, only nudged slightly to the right towards the 

HCCA and Google DeepMind solutions.

 

Moderate wind shear, and a drier more stable airmass have taken

their toll on Sonia today.  The GFS model simulated IR satellite

shows that the system will not produce anymore convection, while the

ECMWF shows a burst occuring later this evening or tonight.  The

latest NHC forecast shows the system becoming a post-tropical

remnant low in 24 h, although that could occur sooner if organized

deep convection does not return over the low-level center tonight.

The system is forecast to dissipate and open into a trough in about

two to three days.

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  27/2100Z 14.1N 121.6W   35 KT  40 MPH

 12H  28/0600Z 14.2N 122.5W   30 KT  35 MPH

 24H  28/1800Z 14.5N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 36H  29/0600Z 14.7N 125.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

 48H  29/1800Z 14.6N 127.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 60H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster Kelly