WTPZ43 KNHC 270836

TCDEP3

 

Tropical Storm Sonia Discussion Number  11

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP182025

200 AM PDT Mon Oct 27 2025

 

Satellite imagery shows a renewed burst of deep convection over and 

just north of the low-level circulation center during the past 

several hours, despite the steady southerly wind shear affecting it. 

Based on a blend of the subjective Dvorak and objective intensity 

estimates, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt.

 

The initial motion is west-northwestward at about 285/6 kt, and this 

general motion is expected to persist today, as the subtropical 

ridge remains positioned to the north. By Tuesday, Sonia should 

gradually turn toward the west as it becomes a shallow system 

embedded within the low-level trade-wind flow. The NHC track 

forecast is little changed from the previous one and remains close 

to the multi-model consensus aids.

 

Although Sonia has been able to regenerate convection and may 

continue to do so intermittently during the next day or so, the 

unfavorable environment surrounding the system is expected to begin 

taking its toll soon. Moderate southerly shear, marginal sea-surface 

temperatures, and a drier, more stable environment along the 

forecast path should cause a weakening trend to begin by tonight. 

Simulated satellite imagery from the global models shows convection 

steadily diminishing by Tuesday, and Sonia is forecast to become a 

post-tropical remnant low by that time. Dissipation is expected to 

occur by midweek as the remnant low opens into a trough. The updated 

NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one and 

remains close to the consensus aids.



 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  27/0900Z 14.2N 120.6W   40 KT  45 MPH

 12H  27/1800Z 14.4N 121.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

 24H  28/0600Z 14.6N 122.7W   35 KT  40 MPH

 36H  28/1800Z 14.8N 124.2W   35 KT  40 MPH

 48H  29/0600Z 14.8N 125.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 60H  29/1800Z 14.7N 127.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 72H  30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)