WTPN31 PGTW 050900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 30W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 052// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 30W (IN-FA) WARNING NR 052 DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 30W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 050600Z --- NEAR 29.4N 141.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 20 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 29.4N 141.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 051800Z --- 34.5N 147.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 50 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 41.3N 157.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 290 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 050900Z POSITION NEAR 30.7N 143.1E. 05NOV26. TROPICAL STORM 30W (IN-FA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 366 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DETERIORATING SYSTEM, WITH A NOW FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN AREA OF CONVECTION WHICH IS DEVELOPING INTO A DELTA RAIN REGION, INDICATIVE OF THE RAPID ONSET OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). THE MSI ALSO DEPICTS STRONG WARM FRONTOGENESIS OCCURRING IN THE NORTHEASTERN SECTOR OF THE CIRCULATION. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM AND ENTERING AN AREA WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER SSTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN THE MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, HEDGED HIGHER THAN THE BULK OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES IN PERSISTENCE WITH AN EARLIER SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR (SAR) PASS WHICH REVEALED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WELL ABOVE THE DVORAK-BASED ESTIMATES AT THAT TIME. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINMENT AS A TROPICAL SYSTEM, WITH NEARLY 50 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, RAPIDLY COOLING SSTS BELOW 26C, THOUGH OUTFLOW INTO THE REAR ENTRANCE REGION OF A POLAR JET MAX IS HELPING TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION FOR THE MOMENT. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO PHASING WITH A 500MB TROUGH RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST, AS WHICH WILL ACCELERATE THE ETT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE COMPLETED WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 050600Z IS 983 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 33 FEET.// NNNN