WTNT41 KNHC 202035

TCDAT1

 

Tropical Storm Fay Discussion Number   6

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL062026

900 PM GMT Sun Sep 20 2026

 

A few more convective bursts have occurred near the center of Fay in 

the last couple of hours as seen in the visible satellite imagery. 

Infrared satellite imagery indicates that some of the cloud tops 

have cooled to near -70 degrees C with the latest batch of 

convection.  The current objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS 

are in the range of 45-51 kt, and the most recent TAFB Dvorak fix 

was a T3.5/55 kt. Based on the given data, the initial intensity has 

been raised to 55 kt, on the upper end of the satellite estimates. 



The environment that Fay is located in still has moisture for 

additional convective development and an approaching mid- to 

upper-level trough should allow for Fay to further intensify for 

about 12 hours or so. Once the trough lifts on Monday, wind shear 

should increase and dry air should find its way into the cyclone. 

This will lead to a gradual weakening of Fay. The current NHC 

intensity forecast calls for Fay to become a post-tropical remnant 

low by Tuesday and then dissipate near the end of the week. The 

intensity forecast is still a little higher than the model guidance 

in the short term as Fay's structure is over performing expectations 

due to the expected baroclinic support from the trough. It is still 

possible that Fay could reach hurricane strength sometime tonight. 



Fay is still moving slowly and off toward the north-northeast, with 

the initial motion estimated around 020/5 kt. This general motion is 

expected to continue for about 12 hours or. However, a low- to 

mid-level ridge is expected to build to the north by Monday. This 

ridge in turn will force Fay to turn southwestward and gradually 

accelerate over the course of the forecast period. The current NHC 

forecast track is similiar to the previous track forecast with a few 

minor adjustments and remains in good agreement with the HCCA and 

GDMI track aids. 

 

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT  20/2100Z 34.4N  32.7W   55 KT  65 MPH

 12H  21/0600Z 34.3N  32.3W   65 KT  75 MPH

 24H  21/1800Z 33.6N  32.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

 36H  22/0600Z 32.5N  33.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

 48H  22/1800Z 31.4N  35.1W   35 KT  40 MPH

 60H  23/0600Z 30.5N  36.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 72H  23/1800Z 29.8N  38.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 96H  24/1800Z 29.0N  42.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

 

$$

Forecaster Katz/Pasch