NOUS41 KWBC 062020

PNSWSH



Service Change Notice 26-43

National Weather Service Headquarters Silver Spring MD

420 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026



To:	 Subscribers:

	 -NOAA Weather Wire Service

	 -Emergency Managers Weather Information Network

	 -NOAAPort

	 Other NWS Partners, Users and Employees



From:	 Kathryn Gilbert, Deputy Director

	 Weather Prediction Center



Subject: Addition of Days 4 and 5 to the Weather Prediction

Center (WPC) Excessive Rainfall Discussion (QPFERD) Effective on

or about June 9, 2026.



On or about June 9, 2026, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC)

will add Days 4 and 5 to the Excessive Rainfall Discussion

(QPFERD), which is issued at 0830 UTC and 2030 UTC.



The Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) forecasts the probability

of rainfall exceeding Flash Flood Guidance (FFG) within 25 miles

of a point.  By synthesizing data from 12 River Forecast

Centers, the WPC identifies the specific 1, 3, and 6-hour

rainfall thresholds likely to cause rivers to reach bankfull

capacity.  To estimate these risks, forecasters analyze

environmental factors like atmospheric moisture and wind

patterns while utilizing advanced numerical models.  The ERO is

a highly collaborative effort, integrating expertise from

meteorologists and hydrologists across the NWS and the National

Water Center to provide a unified national flood risk

assessment.



Previously, if there were any outlined areas on the Days 4 or 5

EROs, the explanation was included on the Medium Range Forecast

Discussion (PMDEPD) issued at 0800 UTC and 2000 UTC.

Integrating the Day 4 and 5 ERO discussions to the QPFERD

transforms it into a consolidated location for all ERO analyses.



The QPFERD can be found here:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html



For more information on the Excessive Rainfall Outlooks, please

visit the following link:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/fam2.shtml#excessrain



If you have any additional questions, please contact:



Public Weather Services Program

Weather Prediction Center

College Park, MD

public.program@noaa.gov



National Service Change Notices are online at:



https://weather.gov/notification/