FXZS60 NSTU 130120 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 220 PM SST Fri Dec 12 2025 .Short term... Satellite imagery this morning and early afternoon showed a mix of sun and clouds with an occasional passing shower. To the west and south, a strong trough remains near Fiji and Tonga. A weak high pressure system remains well to the southeast. Easterly winds of around 10 mph today is anticipated to continue through tomorrow. Through Saturday morning, if a shower occurs it would be short lived and flash flooding is not anticipated. Showers and thunderstorms currently to the northeast is expected to weaken as it approaches American Samoa tomorrow, but there is a slight chance of a thunderstorm. Therefore, the chance for rainfall increases from isolated/scattered overnight (20 to 30% chance) to scattered (40 to 50% chance) in the morning and become numerous (60% chance) in the afternoon and evening. We are not antipating flash flooding from this rain, but may be heavy enough to create ponding on roadways. By Sunday, the risk of rain decrease back to scattered with light northerly winds. Gusts may occur in potential showers. .Long term... We are closely following a weather pattern next week, which is increasing confidence of above average rainfall during this time. The aforementioned trough is anticipated to strengthen near the Fiji region throughout this weekend. As another high pressure system develops to the southwest near New Zealand, this trough is forecast to move over, or at least close to, the American Samoa region by late Monday and to remain through the majority of the week. Pending on the exact position of the trough, Wind Advisory speeds may move over the islands especially along the Pago Pago Harbor area. Rainfall may be consistant and heavy enough to cause flash flooding. Overall, confidence is increasing for the potential for above average rainfall. Northwesterly wind speeds depend on the exact location of the trough. Therefore, confidence is still low to medium on the strength of the northwesterly winds for next week and the range of wind speeds are greater than usual in the long term forecast. && .Marine... Ideal conditions remain over the American Samoa coastal waters as a gentle easterly breeze remains over the waters. Winds are slowly forecast to become northeasterly on Saturday and remain gentle as winds become northerly on Sunday. Be aware that there is a slight chance of a thunderstorm, mainly for the second half of the day on Saturday and Saturday evening. Localized gusts may occur in rainfall during this time. Otherwise, sea heights continue to be within 4 to 5 feet, which is well below the Small Craft Advisory levels for both sustained winds and sea heights. By next week, we are monitoring a trough approaching the region. Pending of the exact location of the trough, winds may reach up to a fresh to strong northwesterly breeze. Seas are forecast to build and maintain rough conditions from Monday night through at least mid-week. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE && $$ LaPlante