FXZS60 NSTU 090024 AFDPPG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pago Pago AS 124 PM SST Thu May 8 2025 .Short term... Latest satellite data shows thunderstorm (associated with a trough to the north) near Tutuila, while low-level cumuli passes through Manu'a. The thunderstorms have moved closer than expected, suggesting the high-pressure system that produced strong tradewinds is starting to move away from the Islands. A downward trend for winds is reflected on latest surface and sounding observations showing southeast winds at 40 mph, now sustained at 25 to 35 mph. As a result, the High Wind Warning (40 mph winds) was downgraded to a Wind Advisory (25 to 35 mph winds) this afternoon, which may continue to diminish and fall below advisory levels by Friday. Model data remains consistent in flash flooding peaking on Friday as the trough descends over the territory. We are confident in torrential downpour and flash flooding for this time. Winds will become light as the trough moves over the Islands. .Long term... Previous models extended the potential for flooding to Saturday, but latest data suggest a diminishing trend by Friday night as the trough moves south sooner than expected. This pattern is possible as thunderstorms came earlier today than expected. As a result, scattered showers may play out for Saturday, instead of the widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms. Meanwhile, a low pressure system developing over Fiji will pass south of the Islands Sunday. Though no direct impacts are expected, an uptick in showers may occur as the trough moves back over the Islands. This time, winds will reach breezy conditions as ridge builds in the area. && .Marine... While winds have slightly subsided below warning levels, hazardous ocean conditions persist. The latest satellite data still shows that seas are around 15 to 16 feet, which is expected as ocean conditions tend to react more slowly to changes in wind patterns. Hence, we continue to urge mariners, especially with small crafts, to anchor and secure their boats. Also, we strongly advise beachgoers to stay out of the water until these hazardous conditions subside. Wave heights are forecast to gradually decrease later tonight, falling to advisory levels (10 feet) on Friday. However, winds near 20 knots may hold rough seas throughout the upcoming week. && .PPG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... High Surf Warning Wind Advisory High Surf Advisory Small Craft Advisory Flash Flood Watch && $$ TM