FXXX12 KWNP 280031

DAYDIS



:Product: Forecast Discussion

:Issued: 2025 Oct 28 0030 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web

# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html

#

#             Forecast Discussion

#

Solar Activity



.24 hr Summary...

Solar activity was at low levels. There have been two C-class flares

both occurring from Region 4262 (S13W61, Cso/beta). Newly numbered

Region 4270 (S07W02, Bxo/beta) emerged around 27/0900 UTC but has been

quiet. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph

imagery.



.Forecast...

Solar activity is expected to remain low over 28-30 Oct.



Energetic Particle



.24 hr Summary...

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained at moderate levels during

the period. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was near background

levels.



.Forecast...

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to rise over the coming

days as Earth becomes geoeffective with the positive polarity coronal

hole (CH) high speed stream (HSS). Particles will remain moderate to

high, likely surpassing the 1,000 pfu threshold during the diurnal

maxima.



With simple regions in the western hemisphere, the greater than 10 MeV

proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.



Solar Wind



.24 hr Summary...

Solar wind parameters showed the expected arrival of a CME that left the

Sun 23 Oct. Parameters became perturbed around 27/1300 UT as density

started to increase ahead of CME arrival. The total interplanetary

magnetic field increased to 10 nT with the Bz dropping to -6.6 nT. Wind

speeds remained between 350-380 km/s. Rotation into the positive sector

can be seen in phi angle starting around the time of arrival.



.Forecast...

Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced through 30 Oct as

Earth become geoeffective with the large, positive polarity CH HSS. This

is likely to cause significant increases in both Bt and solar wind

speeds.



Geospace



.24 hr Summary...

The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels during the period. 



.Forecast...

G1 (Minor) conditions, with a chance for G2 (Moderate) levels, are

likely on 28-30 Oct due to the anticipated onset of a CH HSS.