FXXX12 KWNP 221231

DAYDIS



:Product: Forecast Discussion

:Issued: 2026 Mar 22 1230 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web

# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html

#

#             Forecast Discussion

#

Solar Activity



.24 hr Summary...

Solar activity was at low levels with C-class flare activity observed

from Region 4399 (S17E75, Hax/alpha). Region 4397 (N16E20, Axx/alpha)

showed signs of decay in its trailing spot. New Regions 4400 (S13W19,

Bxo/beta), 4401 (N24E72, Hax/alpha) and 4402 (N14E75, Hax/alpha) were

numbered this period.



No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.



.Forecast...

Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class

flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and

three (22 Mar, 23 Mar, 24 Mar).



Energetic Particle



.24 hr Summary...

Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit were at normal to

moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at

background levels.



.Forecast...

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux will likely reach high levels on 22

Mar and remain at high levels through 24 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV

proton flux is expected to continue at background values.



Solar Wind



.24 hr Summary...

Solar wind parameters reflected CME influences. Solar wind speed reached

a peak of 600 km/s at 22/1000Z. Total IMF reached 38 nT at 21/1532Z. The

maximum southward component of Bz reached -27 nT at 20/2105Z. Phi varied

between positive and negative sectors.



.Forecast...

The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced through the

forecast period. CME effects are expected to begin to wane by early on

22 Mar before an additional disturbance due to recurrent, negative

polarity CH HSS influences arrive and continue through 24 Mar.



Geospace



.24 hr Summary...

The geomagnetic field was at mostly unsettled to G1 (Minor) levels

before reaching G3 (Strong) levels late in the period.



.Forecast...

G2 (Moderate) to G3 (Strong) geomagnetic storming is likely on 22 Mar

due to waning CME influences and the anticipated onset of CH HSS

effects. Isolated periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming are likely

on 23 Mar as CH HSS effects continue. Unsettled to active levels are

expected to prevail on 24 Mar.