FXXX12 KWNP 220031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Mar 22 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity has been at low levels for the past 24 hours. There are currently 4 numbered sunspot regions on the disk. Region 4397 (N16E27, Cro/beta) showed signs of decay in its trailing spot. Regions 4398 (S14E26, Cro/beta) and 4399 (S17E82, Hsx/alpha) were numbered this period. Region 4399 produced a C1 flare at 21/1607 UTC, which was the largest event of the period. New spots appearing to be a simple bi-pole were observed near S12W11, but remain unnumbered at this time given their age and will be numbered next period if they persist. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be very low with a chance for a C-class flares and a slight chance for an M-class flare on days one, two, and three (22 Mar, 23 Mar, 24 Mar). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... Electrons greater than 2 MeV at geosynchronous orbit were at normal to moderate levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux will likely reach high levels on 22 Mar and remain at high levels through 24 Mar. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background values. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters reflected CME influences. Solar wind speed reached a peak of 569 km/s at 21/1147Z. Total IMF reached 38 nT at 21/1532Z. The maximum southward component of Bz reached -27 nT at 20/2105Z. Phi varied between positive and negative sectors. .Forecast... The solar wind environment is expected to remain enhanced through the forecast period. CME effects are expected to begin to wane by early on 22 Mar before an additional disturbance due to recurrent, negative polarity CH HSS influences arrive and continue through 24 Mar. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached G3 (Strong) levels early in the period, but then gradually diminished to unsettled to active levels. .Forecast... G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely on 22 Mar due to waning CME influences and the anticipated onset of CH HSS effects. Isolated periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming are likely on 23 Mar as CH HSS effects continue. Unsettled to active levels are expected to prevail on 24 Mar.