FXXX12 KWNP 091231

DAYDIS



:Product: Forecast Discussion

:Issued: 2025 May 09 1230 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web

# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html

#

#             Forecast Discussion

#

Solar Activity



.24 hr Summary...

Solar activity was low. Region 4082 (S10E01, Cso/beta) produced a C7.1

flare at 08/1454 UTC, the strongest of the period, and exhibited decay

in the trailing spots. The bulk of C-class flare activity originated

from Region 4079 (N07W60, Ekc/beta-gamma), which remained stable

throughout the period. Region 4081 (N07W29, Dai/beta) exhibited minor

decay in the trailing spots while Region 4084 (S20E55, Cso/beta)

remained stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available

imagery.



.Forecast...

Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class

(R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flares over 09-11 May.



Energetic Particle



.24 hr Summary...

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak

flux of 15,900 pfu observed at 08/1440 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV

proton flux was steady at background levels.



.Forecast...

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels on

09-11 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at

background levels through 11 May.



Solar Wind



.24 hr Summary...

The solar wind environment was mildly enhanced in response to negative

polarity CH HSS influences. Total IMF strength reached 8 nT and the Bz

component varied between +6/-7 nT. Solar wind speeds ranged between

410-510 km/s. The phi angle was negative throughout the period.



.Forecast...

Enhanced solar wind conditions are expected to prevail on 09 May

due to continued negative polarity CH HSS influences in addition to the

possible arrival of a CME from 05 May. Negative polarity CH HSS

influences are expected to persist over 10-11 May.



Geospace



.24 hr Summary...

The geomagnetic field reached active levels in response to negative

polarity CH HSS influences.



.Forecast...

The geomagnetic field is likely to reach G1 (Minor) storm levels on 09

May due to negative polarity CH HSS influences and the possible arrival

of a CME from 05 May. Periods of active conditions are likely on 10-11

May due to continued CH HSS influences.