FXXX12 KWNP 090031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2025 May 09 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity remained low. The strongest events of the period were observed from Region 4082 (S10E07, Dso/beta-gamma); a C7.0 flare at 08/1141 UTC and a C7.0/1n at 08/1500 UTC. The region exhibited some slight decay in its trailing portion. Region 4079 (N09W52, Ekc/beta-gamma) produced numerous weak C-class flares during the period. The region has shown some slight decay on its northern flank. Region 4081 (N08W23, Dai/beta) showed some consolidation in its lead and trailer portions, with some minor intermediate spot emergence. New Region 4084 (S20E60, Cso/beta) was numbered and produced some weak C-class activity. Several filament eruptions were observed in coronagraph data, all of which appear to be directed away from the Earth-Sun line. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) flare activity over 09-11 May. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak flux of 15,894 pfu observed at 08/1440 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below S1 (Minor) levels. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach high levels over 09-11 May. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels over 09-11 May. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment remained weakly enhanced this period due to continued, but waning, negative polarity CH HSS influences. Total magnetic field strength was between 5-7 nT. The Bz component varied between +4/-7 nT. Solar wind speeds averaged near 450 km/s throughout the period. Phi angle orientation was predominantly in the negative sector. .Forecast... Solar wind enhancements are likely on 09 May due to the anticipated onset of another negative polarity CH HSS coupled with a possible glancing blow CME from 05 May. CH HSS enhancements are expected to persist on 10-11 May. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels, with an isolated active period to end the day. .Forecast... G1 (Minor) conditions are likely on 09 May due to the onset of another negative polarity CH HSS coupled with a possible glancing blow CME from 05 May. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on 10-11 May due to continued influence from a negative polarity CH HSS.