FXXX12 KWNP 040031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Feb 04 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at high levels and dominated by Region 4366 (N14E07, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) with negligible contributions from the remaining disk. Following an X1.5 flare from Region 4366 at 03/1408 UTC and a subsequent M-class event (M7.2), Region 4366 appeared to undergo a slight reduction in area and a modest simplification of its magnetic complexity. Despite this consolidation, the region retained its beta-gamma-delta configuration. New Region 4372 (S24W39, Bxo/beta) emerged in the southwest quadrant but is already in decay while Region 4358 (N16W30, Cro/beta) developed sunspots within an area of previously decayed plage in the northeast quadrant. Region 4371 (S22E60, Dao/beta) exhibited signs of growth as it rotated further onto the visible disk; however, limb proximity and foreshortening continue to hinder a complete assessment of its extent and complexity. Region 4362 (S16E06, Cao/beta-gamma) experienced growth and then some slight decay in extent, but developed trailing and intermediate spots and acquired a gamma configuration with new flux emergence. The remaining numbered regions on the visible disk remained stable or in a state of slight decay. No significant growth or increased magnetic complexity was noted in these groups during the period. Other activity included a large, slow moving filament eruption centered near N18W30 that began at 03/0400 UTC as seen in SUVI 304 imagery. An associated CME was observed off the NW limb at 03/1836 UTC. Analysis will be conducted as imagery becomes available. .Forecast... Moderate to high solar activity is expected due to M-class flaring (R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) for the next three days with a high chance for X-class flares (R3-Strong or greater) due to expected further activity from AR 4366. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the period with a peak of 10,479 pfu at 03/1720 UTC. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate to high levels through 06 Feb. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux has a chance to exceed S1 (Minor) levels over 04-06 Feb due to the high eruptive potential of Region 4366. The risk of a proton event will increase as the region moves into a more favorable magnetic connection point in the Suns western hemisphere. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters initially reflected nominal, background conditions before showing a clear disturbance beginning at approximately 03/1835 UTC. Total magnetic field (Bt) was steady near 5–6 nT for much of the period but increased abruptly to a peak of 9 nT at 2054 UTC. Solar wind speed remained in a slow-wind regime, gradually increasing from about 290 km/s to a peak near 340 km/s late in the period. Density showed a modest enhancement during this disturbance, while temperature also showed a correlating spike from about 20,000 K early in the period to nearly 100,000 K. The Phi angle underwent a distinct transition starting around 03/1835 UTC, shifting from a negative (Towards) to a positive (Away) orientation. This disturbance is likely associated with a solar sector boundary crossing. .Forecast... The solar wind is expected to remain in the current slightly enhanced regime before returning to nominal conditions until mid-day on 05 Feb, when a disturbance is likely due to the expected arrival of the complex CME ejecta associated with the 01/2357 UTC X8.1 flare from Region 4366. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet through 04 Feb. Activity is likely to increase from unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels on 05 Feb due to the anticipated arrival of the CME associated with the X8.1 flare from Region 4366. Active to G1 (Minor) conditions are expected to continue through 06 Feb.