FXXX12 KWNP 031231

DAYDIS



:Product: Forecast Discussion

:Issued: 2025 Jul 03 1230 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web

# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html

#

#             Forecast Discussion

#

Solar Activity



.24 hr Summary...

Solar activity was at low levels. Region 4132 (S17E35, Axx/alpha)

exhibited decay as it produced a low level C-class flare as well.

Regions 4127 (S18W16, Dai/beta) and 4129 (N02E02, Cri/beta) continued to

grow, developing additional spots and increasing in length. Region 4133

(S17W86, Axx/alpha) was numbered this period but was otherwise

unremarkable. The remaining active regions were relatively stable and

quiet.



Two eruptive prominences off of both the E and W limbs were observed

between ~03/0500-0700 UTC. Any potential CME activity is not expected to

be Earth-directed.



.Forecast...

A slight chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due to

isolated M-class flare activity will persist through 05 July.



Energetic Particles



.24 hr Summary...

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak

flux of 4,930 pfu observed at 02/1430 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV

proton flux was at background levels.



.Forecast...

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to

moderate levels through 04 July with a chance for a return to high

levels on 05 July. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to

continue at background levels through 05 July.



Solar Wind



.24 hr Summary...

Solar wind parameters reflected weak CME influences. Total field was

mostly at ~5 nT until near 03/0200 UTC when increases to 10 nT, and

eventually 14 nT occurred. Bz was mostly southward until after 03/0300

UTC when a northward shift was observed. Solar wind speeds was between

340-400 km/s. Phi was variable.



.Forecast...

Enhancements in the IMF are likely on 03 July with the arrival of a CME

that left the Sun on 28 Jun. An additional enhancement due to CH HSS

influences is expected by early 04 July, continuing into 05 July.



Geospace



.24 hr Summary...

The geomagnetic field was quiet.



.Forecast...

G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is likely 03 July due to the

aforementioned CME effects. Unsettled to active periods are expected on

04 July due to CH HSS effects which expected to continue into 05 July

resulting in primarily unsettled conditions.