FXXX12 KWNP 030031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2026 Feb 03 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was at high levels and dominated by Region 4366 (N14E21, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) with negligible contributions from the remaining disk. Region 4366 continued its growth phase and exhibited an increasingly complex delta configuration and increased intermediary spots. Region 4366 produced several M-class flares and two X-class flares during the reporting period. The X-class events were an X2.8 flare at 02/0036 UTC and an X1.6 flare at 02/0814 UTC. New Regions 4370 (S18E64, Cro/beta) and 4371 (S22E70, Bxo/beta) were numbered as they rotated into view from the East limb, though foreshortening and limb proximity continue to complicate a definitive assessment of their true size and complexity. The other four active regions on the visible solar disk remained stable with no appreciable growth or signs of development. Radio signatures of note were observed in conjunction with the major flaring activity from Region 4366. A Type II radio sweep was detected by USAF observatories starting at about 02/0000 UTC, with an estimated velocity of 955 km/s. Multiple eruptive fronts were observed departing to the northeast, first becoming visible in LASCO imagery at 02/0012 UTC. These are believed to be associated with an X8.1/2N flare at 01/2357 UTC from Region 4366 (associated with a Type-II burst, est. velocity 873 km/s). Additionally, a narrow eruption off to the northwest was observed in coronagraph imagery at approximately the same time. Data gaps and image quality issues further complicated the analysis of these events. Modeling of these complex eruptions continues; however, current analysis shows that a glancing blow impact is expected on 05 Feb. .Forecast... Moderate to high solar activity due to M-class flaring is expected for the next three days with a high chance for occasional X-class flares due to expected further activity from AR 4366. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels during the period, with a peak of 7,290 pfu at 02/2030 UTC. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at moderate to high levels through 05 Feb. There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to exceed the S1 (Minor) levels on 03-05 Feb due to the recent X8.1 flare event from Region 4366 and possible future eruptions. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Available solar wind measurements at L1 reflected background conditions without an indication of transient or recurrent influences. Total magnetic field (Bt) remained between 4 and 7 nT. The Bz component was mostly negative, with a southernmost deflection of -6 nT. Solar wind speeds were stable around 300–315 km/s. The Phi angle was mostly in the negative (Towards) orientation. .Forecast... A quiescent solar wind regime is expected to continue through 04 Feb barring any significant eruptive events. Disturbances in the solar wind are expected on 05 Feb with the arrival of a CME associated with the X8.1 flare. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was quiet with an isolated unsettled synoptic period. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet through 04 Feb. Activity is expected to increase from unsettled to G1 (Minor) storm levels on 05 Feb due to the anticipated arrival of the complex CME ejecta associated with the 01/2357 UTC X8.1 flare from Region 4366.