FXXX10 KWNP 030031

DAYTDF



:Product: 3-Day Forecast

:Issued: 2026 Feb 03 0030 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web

# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html

#

#             3-Day Forecast

#

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast



The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA

Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 03-Feb 05 2026 is 5.00 (NOAA Scale

G1).



NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 03-Feb 05 2026



             Feb 03       Feb 04       Feb 05

00-03UT       1.67         1.67         2.00     

03-06UT       1.33         1.67         2.00     

06-09UT       1.00         1.33         1.67     

09-12UT       1.00         1.33         1.33     

12-15UT       0.67         1.33         1.33     

15-18UT       1.33         1.33         3.00     

18-21UT       1.67         1.33         4.33     

21-00UT       1.67         1.67         5.00 (G1)



Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 05 Feb due

to possible glancing influences from the CME associated with the 01/2357

UTC X8.1 flare from Region 4366.



B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast



Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was

below S-scale storm level thresholds.



Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 03-Feb 05 2026



              Feb 03  Feb 04  Feb 05

S1 or greater   50%     50%     50%



Rationale: There is a chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to

exceed the S1 (Minor) levels on 03-05 Feb due to the recent X8.1 flare

event from Region 4366 and possible future eruptions.



C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast



Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24

hours. The largest was at Feb 02 2026 0036 UTC.



Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 03-Feb 05 2026



              Feb 03        Feb 04        Feb 05

R1-R2           80%           80%           80%

R3 or greater   40%           40%           40%



Rationale: Moderate to high solar activity due to M-class flaring

(R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) is expected for the next three days with a high

chance for occasional X-class flares (R3-Strong or greater) due to

expected further activity from AR 4366.