FXXX10 KWNP 020031

DAYTDF



:Product: 3-Day Forecast

:Issued: 2026 Feb 02 0030 UTC

# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center

# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web

# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html

#

#             3-Day Forecast

#

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast



The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA

Scale levels).

The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 02-Feb 04 2026 is 1.67 (below NOAA

Scale levels).



NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 02-Feb 04 2026



             Feb 02       Feb 03       Feb 04

00-03UT       1.67         1.67         1.67     

03-06UT       1.33         1.33         1.67     

06-09UT       1.00         1.00         1.33     

09-12UT       1.00         1.00         1.33     

12-15UT       0.67         0.67         1.33     

15-18UT       1.33         1.33         1.33     

18-21UT       1.67         1.67         1.33     

21-00UT       1.67         1.67         1.67     



Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No

significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.



B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast



Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was

below S-scale storm level thresholds.



Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 02-Feb 04 2026



              Feb 02  Feb 03  Feb 04

S1 or greater    5%     10%     10%



Rationale: No 

There is a slight chance for S1(Minor) or greater solar radiation storms

on 03 and 04 February as Region 4366 moves into an increasingly

favorable position.



C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast



Radio blackouts reaching the R3 levels were observed over the past 24

hours. The largest was at Feb 01 2026 1233 UTC.



Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 02-Feb 04 2026



              Feb 02        Feb 03        Feb 04

R1-R2           75%           75%           75%

R3 or greater   25%           25%           25%



Rationale: R2 radio blackouts are expected.  Active region 4366 is

expected to produce more flare activity over the next three days, with a

chance for an R3 or greater event.