FXUS66 KOTX 031743 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 943 AM PST Tue Feb 3 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and mild through Friday. - Wetter weekend expected with incoming front Saturday Night into Sunday && .SYNOPSIS... Tuesday will see return of upper level ridge over the Pacific Northwest. The forecast then trends drier again. Temperatures will remain mild and above normal. Cold front over weekend will bring precip and breezy winds. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Friday: Models continue to be in good agreement of a strong upper level ridge building over the region through Thursday, then weakening and starting to push east on Friday. The magnitude of the ridge continued to be advertised as a 99th percentile for this time of year, meaning in the top 1 percent as 500mb heights climb to near 580 decameters, and 850mb temperatures reach values near 10C (50F). While a warming trend is a done deal in the mountains, many of the lower elevations will be plagued by stratus as a moist boundary layer is in place. This will be especially true for the northern valleys, East Slopes of the Cascade valleys, and the Moses Lake area. Yet some easterly flow in the boundary layer and slightly higher sun angle may allow the stratus to break up at times over NE WA/N Idaho Panhandle. And over the Palouse and LC Valley downslope southeast boundary layer winds should allow for warmer temperatures as well with highs climbing into the 50s. Locations that stay in the stratus all day will struggle to get out of the low to mid 40s. Currently the National Blend of Models forecast seems reasonable given some model spread in temperatures. Saturday through Monday: Ensembles are in good agreement that the ridge will finally give way completely, allowing an upper trough and an associated wet system to pass through the Inland NW. Precipitable waters along and ahead of a cold front increase to 150-200 percent of normal. Snow levels will initially be high ahead of the front, ranging from 5000-6000 feet through Saturday night as precipitation moves in. Then as the cold front passes on Sunday snow levels drop to 4000-4500 feet, and then to around 3000 feet behind the front on Monday with post-frontal showers favoring snow showers along the Cascade crest and Idaho Panhandle mountains. Currently however the chances for significant mountain snow for Sunday/Monday are low, with a 50% chance for 2 inches or more at Stevens Pass, and a 40% chance for similar amounts at Lookout Pass. Yet additional weather systems are shown by the ensembles next week as the cooler and unsettled pattern continues. JW && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: Fog will continue at KGEG-KSFF through Tuesday morning with a moist boundary layer. Fog will lift into an IFR and eventually MVFR stratus into the afternoon. HREF showing conditions improving to VFR into the afternoon but not buying that with the strength of the mid level ridge building today. KPUW-KLWS will remain VFR with thanks to level easterly flow. MVFR conditions to continue for KEAT-KMWH through the day. Ceilings trend towards IFR in the late this evening again with light northeast flow for KGEG-KSFF-KCOE-KEAT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low confidence with the degree of improvements for Tuesday afternoon. HREF usually is too optimistic with improving conditions under strong high pressure. Moderate confidence that conditions remain VFR through the TAF period (18z Wednesday) for KPUW/KLWS. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 47 34 50 32 49 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d'Alene 47 36 50 33 51 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 52 37 53 37 54 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 55 39 55 37 56 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 43 33 47 32 48 31 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 43 36 47 33 47 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 48 38 53 37 56 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 49 34 50 33 51 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 44 36 47 35 47 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 44 36 45 35 47 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Dense Fog Advisory until noon PST today for Spokane Area. ID...None. && $$