FXUS66 KMTR 221021 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 321 AM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1257 PM PDT Sat Mar 21 2026 - Temperatures remain above seasonal average this week - Dry weather through the 7 day outlook && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 223 AM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026 (Today and tonight) The skies are still mostly clear early this morning, although a marine layer has returned to the coast and we could get a sunrise surprise of low stratus later this morning. GFS LAMP guidance shoes a 40-60% chance of low ceilings forming at MRY between 6-9 AM before clearing out in the late morning. Probabilities are similar at the other coastal locations, but the temperate still has to drop another 5 degrees or so for the air in the boundary layer to become saturated. Any low clouds will clear by the afternoon as high cloud coverage starts to increase. Temperatures are currently 5-10 degrees cooler than this time yesterday, but max temps in the afternoon will only end up a couple degrees cooler than yesterday. That's still roughly 15 degrees above normal. While the seasonally extreme heat wave is over, 850 mb temperatures are still above the 90th percentile for this time of year and unseasonably warm weather continues. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 223 AM PDT Sun Mar 22 2026 (Monday through Saturday) The overall pattern is dominated by zonal flow, with the Bay Area situated between the subtropical jet to the south and polar front jet to the north. This will keep the weather pretty benign. Temperatures will continue to run above normal, but noticeably cooler than last week. Ensemble clusters agree that broad, low- amplitude ridging is likely this weekend, but an embedded short wave trough will likely counteract some of those effects. The next chance for rain is around the middle of next week, and while it's still long-range, the probability has been increasing. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 923 PM PDT Sat Mar 21 2026 Currently VFR at all terminals with the exception of HAF which is reporting MVFR visibility. Moderate confidence on the return of LIFR ceilings to HAF, MRY, and SNS. Onshore winds will prevail. Haze will reduce slant range visibilities. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with gusty westerly flow. High confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Westerly winds will prevail, diminishing tonight before increasing again (although not as strong) with the afternoon sea breeze tomorrow. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with southwesterly flow at MRY and VFR with northerly flow at SNS. Moderate confidence on LIFR ceilings returning to the terminals tonight. Onshore winds will prevail. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 923 PM PDT Sat Mar 21 2026 Strong northerly winds will continue through the weekend with gale force gusts beginning to diminish tomorrow morning. Hazardous seas are expected over the weekend as a result. Winds diminish and seas abate going into next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Flynn LONG TERM....Flynn AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea