FXUS66 KMFR 092101

AFDMFR



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Medford OR

201 PM PDT Fri May 9 2025



.DISCUSSION...Satellite image shows generally a thin layer of cirrus 

moving up from the southwest, and this will continue to be the case 

into this evening. Therefore the perception is skies will be mostly 

clear to partly cloudy with not much filtering of the sun from the 

high clouds. 



Dry weather will continue through Saturday. The upper ridge will 

shift east Saturday with a southwest flow returning as the another 

upper trough digs south towards our area from the Gulf Of Alaska. It 

will remain dry, but with slight cooling for the interior compared 

to Friday. Winds aloft will be slightly stronger, and this along 

with a tighter pressure gradient will result in gusty breezes in the 

afternoon and early evening hours east of the Cascades and interior 

westside valleys. 



All signs are pointing towards cooler and unsettled weather Sunday 

through Monday as the aforementioned upper trough from the Gulf of 

Alaska digs south into our area and will remain over our area 

through Monday night. Showers Sunday will be at the coast in the 

morning, then gradually moving inland west of the Cascades Sunday 

afternoon. So while temperatures Sunday will be cooler for the 

interior, they should be near normal for this time of the year.



Showers are likely Sunday night through Monday with a decent amount 

of precipitation for this time of the year. Although various 

guidance has backed off on the amount of rainfall, it will still be 

significant along the south coast, coastal mountains and to some 

extent the Cascades. Also, instability is marginal for the Cascades 

east in the late afternoon and  early evening hours Monday. 

Therefore, could not rule out isolated storms for the Cascades east. 

However, this will be dependent on the amount of clearing in between 

the cloud cover. Should the cloud cover dominate, daytime heating 

will be limited and thus instability will not be as significant. 

Have kept in a slight chance of thunder for late Sunday and Monday 

afternoon and early evening. At the same time cold air aloft with 

500mb temperatures near -27C will move over the marine waters that 

could result in isolated thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday.  



Snow levels will lower to around 4500 feet Sunday night. However, 

the prolonged stretch of warm weather has resulted in warm ground 

temperatures. The net result will be limited road snow concern, due 

to snow melting on the roads. Even then it will be limited to the 

overnight hours Sunday night.



Tuesday will be a transition day with the upper trough moving south 

of the forecast area. Showers will linger Tuesday morning, along the 

Cascades and portions of the east side,with moist locations dry 

Tuesday afternoon. 



Evidence is pointing towards dry and milder weather the latter part 

of next week with weak upper ridging building in the storm track 

staying north of out forecast area. -Petrucelli 





&&



.AVIATION...09/18Z TAFs...Ceilings over North Bend are going between 

VFR and MVFR to start the TAF period, with VFR levels expected to 

settle in before the afternoon. Northerly winds look to allow marine 

stratus to rebuild at MVFR levels late tonight and into Saturday 

morning.



VFR levels under high clouds and normal diurnal winds continue 

south of Cape Blanco and for inland areas. -TAD





&&



.MARINE...Updated 200 PM Friday, May 9, 2025...Below advisory seas 

continue today under stable atmospheric conditions and normal 

westerly swell. These conditions are forecast to continue through 

Saturday night. On Sunday morning, an approaching low pressure 

system will bring chances of marine showers. Southerly winds 

increase in the afternoon, with steep seas expected to build in all 

waters. The strongest winds are expected on Sunday evening. 



Marine showers ease and winds turn northerly through the day Monday. 

Westerly swell is forecast to increase on Monday and may remain 

elevated through Wednesday morning. This increased swell may help to 

sustain steep seas through Wednesday. Conditions may briefly improve 

later in the day Wednesday. Northerly winds are forecast to increase 

on Thursday morning under a thermal trough. -TAD





&&



.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...CA...None.



PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 11 

     AM PDT Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376. 



&&



$$