FXUS66 KMFR 090419 CCA

AFDMFR



Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED

National Weather Service Medford OR

919 PM PDT Thu May 8 2025



...Updated Aviation and Marine Sections...





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.AVIATION...09/00Z TAFs...VFR conditions will prevail through the 

next 24 hours for inland sites, but along the coast, areas of MVFR 

will develop as the marine layer pushes in overnight. Otherwise, 

typical diurnal afternoon breezes are expected, with speeds 

decreasing overnight.  -BPN



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.MARINE...Updated 800 PM Thursday, May 8, 2025...Steep seas 

will linger south of Cape Blanco tonight. Conditions will improve

Friday into early Sunday, then a pattern change is expected

Sunday. In particular, an upper level disturbance Sunday through

Tuesday will result in unsettled weather with periods of rain,

gusty winds and steep seas persisting into mid-week. There is

also a slight chance of thunderstorms, with the highest

probability on Monday. -DW



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.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 223 PM PDT Thu May 8 2025/ 



DISCUSSION...Satellite image shows clear to mostly clear skies over 

the forecast area. The exception is from about Gold Beach south 

where marine stratus continues to persist. The marine stratus could 

peel back just off the coast for a couple of hours late this 

afternoon and early this evening, but confidence on that is low. 



Dry weather will continue through Saturday with a southwest flow 

into tonight, then upper ridging will build in later tonight into 

Friday as an upper trough begins to dig near 140W. This will result 

in warmer afternoon temperatures away from the coast. 



Skies will remain mostly clear tonight into Friday, although we'll 

have varying amounts of high clouds moving in from the southwest 

later tonight into Friday. Even then the perception is it will be 

mostly clear with the expectation that the high level clouds won't 

be thick enough to block out the sun completely. 



The upper ridge will shift east Saturday with a southwest flow 

returning as the another upper trough digs south towards our area 

from the Gulf Of Alaska. It will remain dry, but with slight cooling 

for the interior compared to Friday. 



All signs are pointing towards cooler and unsettled weather Sunday 

through Monday as the aforementioned upper trough from the Gulf of 

Alaska digs south into our area and will remain over our area 

through Monday night. Showers are likely during this time with a 

decent amount of precipitation for this time of the year. Although 

various guidance has backed off on the amount of rainfall, it will 

still be significant along the south coast, coastal mountains and to 

some extent the Cascades. Instability is marginal for the 

Cascades east in the late afternoon and early evening hours Sunday

and Monday. Therefore, could not rule out isolated storms for the

Cascades east. Also a cold pool at 500mb with -25C temperatures

could result in a couple of isolated storms over the northern

marine waters Sunday and Monday. Any isolated storms will be 

dependent on the amount of clearing in between the cloud cover. 

Should the cloud cover dominate, daytime heating will be limited 

and thus instability will not be as significant. Have kept in a 

slight chance of thunder for late Sunday and Monday afternoon and 

early evening. 



Snow levels will lower between 5000-5550 feet Sunday afternoon, then 

around 4500 feet Sunday night. However, the prolonged stretch of 

warm weather has resulted in warm ground temperatures. The net 

result will be limited road snow concern, due to snow melting on the 

roads. Even then it will be limited to the overnight hours Sunday 

night.



Tuesday will be a transition day with the upper trough moving south 

of the forecast area. Showers will linger Tuesday morning, along the 

Cascades and portions of the east side,with moist locations dry 

Tuesday afternoon. 



Evidence is pointing towards dry and milder weather the latter part 

of next week with weak upper ridging building in the storm track 

staying north of out forecast area. -Petrucelli 







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.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...None.



CA...None.



PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday 

     for PZZ356-376. 



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$$