FXUS66 KMFR 071123

AFDMFR



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Medford OR

423 AM PDT Thu May 7 2026



.New Aviation Section...





.AVIATION (12Z TAFs)...



A strong marine layer remains in place along and near the coast

impacting both KOTH and KRBG with IFR/MVFR conditions persisting

through this morning. Some relief is expected this afternoon, but

another push overnight will bring another round of IFR/MVFR 

potential. Farther inland, expect both KMFR and KLMT to 

experience VFR conditions throughout the valid TAF period. 

Otherwise, typical diurnal breezes expected this afternoon with 

speeds diminishing around sunset. 



-Guerrero



&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 306 AM PDT Thu May 7 2026/ 



DISCUSSION (Today through Wednesday)...



Key Points:



* Limited impacts continue the next several days  

    - Most notable will be the well above normal temperatures  

    - Some areas 10-15+ degree above normal 

* Drying trend continues for the extended forecast 

    - No signal for precipitation in the forecast at this time

    - See details below about fuels



Further Details:



A ridge of high pressure continues to build in over the region as

a long wave trough consumes much of the central and eastern 

CONUS. Overall, this ridge will be the dominated upper level 

pattern for the region through much of the forecast with one 

caveat tomorrow. That caveat will be a weak shortwave entering the

PacNW; however, this shortwave is very progressive eastward, and 

will likely only result in cooler temperatures for our area. 

Tomorrow is the overall "coolest" day in the forecast, but we are 

still forecasting above normal temperatures. 



We continue to see a signal in the extended forecast for this 

ridge to essentially remain in place through middle parts of May. 

This is confirmed via cluster analysis leading to high confidence 

in a more likely ridge pattern aloft through Day 9. This will 

likely result in continued above normal temperatures and dry 

conditions which may result in an accelerated period of drying for

fuels. Forecast energy release component values for fuels are 

forecast to rise near their maximum values for this time of year. 

Or, another way to look at this, these values are forecast to go 

above 1 standard deviation from "normal" values for this time of 

year. 



Through May, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) continues to 

indicate a strong signal for above normal/well above normal 

temperatures, and a signal for below normal precipitation chances.

In fact, there is a signal for this trend to continue May-June- 

July with El Nino chances likely (61% chance) to emerge through 

this period, and persist through at least the end of 2026. This 

was indicated in the CPC April 9th ENSO diagnostic discussion.



-Guerrero



AVIATION (06Z TAFs)...



Marine stratus is bringing a mix of IFR/MVFR conditions to the 

coast and coastal valleys into the lower Umpqua Valley. The marine

layer will gradually extend back into the central portion of the 

Umpqua Valley, including Roseburg, overnight. But, the stratus is 

expected to be faster to improve on Thursday morning, with VFR by 

18Z.



Elsewhere, VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period 

with typically breezy afternoon/evening winds. 



MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Thursday, May 7, 2026...Sub-advisory 

conditions are expected through Saturday. There will be a period 

of near advisory level winds this morning just south of Cape 

Blanco between 5 and 30 nm offshore from Gold Beach. Otherwise, 

light to moderate wind speeds prevail through Friday. West-

northwest swell dominated seas at or below 6 feet will persist 

through early Saturday. A thermal trough develops over the 

weekend, bringing increasing north winds and steep to very steep 

seas through early next week.



&&



.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...None.



CA...None.



PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.



&&



$$