FXUS66 KMFR 061744

AFDMFR



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Medford OR

1044 AM PDT Wed May 6 2026



.Updated AVIATION Discussion...



&&



.AVIATION...06/18Z TAFs...Marine stratus is bringing IFR/MVFR 

conditions to the coastal locations and into the Umpqua Basin. The 

marine layer will gradually peel back to the immediate coast this 

afternoon, so conditions should improve to VFR in the Umpqua Basin 

but MVFR conditions will likely persist through the TAF period for 

coastal sites. Expect marine stratus to return to the Umpqua Basin 

again, bringing another round of MVFR/IFR ceilings tonight.



Elsewhere, VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with 

typical increases in afternoon/evening winds. /BR-y



&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 426 AM PDT Wed May 6 2026/ 



DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)...



Key Points:



* Limited impacts the next several days

    - Most notable will be the well above normal temperatures

    - Some areas 10-15+ degree above normal 

* Drying trend starts today  

    - No signal for precipitation in the forecast at this time



Further Details:



A ridge of high pressure will build in over the region today as a 

long wave trough consumes much of the central and eastern CONUS. 

Overall, this ridge will be the dominated upper level pattern for 

the region through much of the forecast with one caveat Friday. 

There will be a weak shortwave entering the PacNW on Friday, but 

this is very progressive in the eastward progression and will likely 

only result in cooler temperatures for our area. Friday is the 

overall "coolest" day in the forecast, but we are still forecasting 

above normal temperatures on this day. 



There is a signal in the extended forecast for this ridge to 

essentially remain in place through middle parts of May. This could 

result in continued above normal temperatures and dry conditions 

which may result in an accelerated period of drying for fuels. 

Through May, the Climate Prediction Center is indicating a strong 

signal for above normal temperatures, and a weak signal for below 

normal precipitation chances. In fact, there is a signal for this 

trend to continue May-June-July with El Nino chances likely (61% 

chance) to emerge through this period, and persist through at least 

the end of 2026. 



-Guerrero



MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Wednesday, May 6, 2026...An extended 

period of relatively calm conditions will continue through Friday,

with west-northwest swell dominated seas likely remaining below 8

ft. Wind speeds briefly increase Thursday morning south of Cape 

Blanco, but remain below advisory conditions and quickly diminish 

in the afternoon. A thermal trough will develop Saturday morning 

and strengthen through the weekend, resulting in gusty north winds

and steep seas through early next week.



&&



.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...None.



CA...None.



PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.



&&



$$