FXUS66 KMFR 032303

AFDMFR



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Medford OR

303 PM PST Tue Feb 3 2026



...New Aviation Section...





.AVIATION (00Z TAFs)...



VFR conditions will prevail for most of the area with a couple 

caveats. The coast may see low low clouds develop tonight. Did not

put any categorical changes, but did note this possibility with a

scattered deck around 500 ft. The other noteworthy item is the 

possibility for some westside valley fog and low clouds which will

impact KRBG. May consider this for KMFR in the next cycle but at 

this time confidence is low considering last night and an 

unchanged airmass. 



-Guerrero





&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 206 PM PST Tue Feb 3 2026/ 



DISCUSSION...Ridging will be the main story for the next several

days. It already brought highs 5-10 degrees above normal on 

Monday, and now it is bringing them near 10-15 degrees above in 

more areas this afternoon! These warmer temperatures will be felt 

the most east of the Cascades where they'll keep warming into the 

mid-/upper 50s. Highs in the low to mid 60s will be found in west 

side valleys and along the coast. 



Clearer skies overnight will once again lead to fog development 

along the Coos County coast and near the Umpqua Basin. This fog 

could also reach the western Rogue Valley near Grants Pass. Lows 

will be similar to last night. Tomorrow is when the ridge will be 

the strongest across Southern Oregon and Northern California. That 

will equate to some of the warmest highs for the week with upper 50s 

to low 60s east, low 60s for west side valleys, and highs near 70 

near the coast. Thursday will be a repeat of Wednesday with a change 

of a few degrees overall. 



The next change comes this weekend as the ridge breaks down and 

allows an upper low to track southeastward towards the PNW. The 

impacts begin Saturday with rain chances reaching the coast. Most of 

the activity through the weekend will be found at the coast, 

although ~0.25"-0.50" is forecast in valleys. Snow levels will also 

fall with this system to 4,000'-4,500', bringing snow to the 

Southern Oregon Cascades, and the heaviest forecasts near Crater 

Lake are near 6 inches. There is more agreement that precipitation 

chances continue into early next week. -Hermansen



AVIATION...03/18Z TAFs...VFR conditions will prevail for most of 

the area through the TAF period. The exception will be in the Umpqua 

Basin and Illinois/lower Rogue Valleys where LIFR conditions in fog 

will persist through the morning hours, clearing late morning, then 

likely returning again overnight. 



MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Tuesday, February 3, 2026...After 

relatively calm conditions today, steep west swell arrives late 

tonight into Wednesday and persists through at least Thursday. A 

passing front will produce increased south winds, steep seas, and 

low visibility conditions in rain this weekend. 



&&



.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OR...CA...None.



PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 

     4 PM PST Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376. 



&&



$$