FXUS66 KLOX 122156

AFDLOX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 

156 PM PST Fri Dec 12 2025



.SYNOPSIS...12/102 PM.



A gradual cooling trend is expected through Saturday as high 

pressure weakens. Areas of dense fog are possible near the coast. 

Temperatures will trend warmer again Sunday through the middle of

next week before cooling returns the end of the week. The next

chance of rain is during the week of Christmas.



&&



.SHORT TERM (TDY-MON)...12/135 PM.



A classic December dense fog pattern is setting up again along the

coast under a very strong and shallow marine inversion and very

light pressure gradients in all directions. Stratus has been 

rapidly moving up the Central Coast and expecting most coastal 

areas to be engulfed in dense fog by later this afternoon and 

evening, likely creating some delays at coastal airport sites. 

This may continue into Sunday as well.



Otherwise, the lengthy dry spell continues and not expected to 

change until the week of Christmas. In the meantime, the shift now

to light onshore flow will continue the slight cooling trend, 

mainly just for coastal areas through Saturday before another high

pressure ridge nudges in from the west Sunday into early next 

week. At that point temperatures will start climbing again with 

widespread 80s across the coastal valleys south of Pt Conception 

and 70s to lower 80s in the northern valleys. Northerly flow will 

start ramping up Monday which should lead to some gusty winds 

across southern Santa Barbara County and the I5 corridor.



.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)...12/155 PM.



Around mid week next week the upper level pattern will begin a 

slow shift towards a more favorable pattern for rain locally. The

long standing ridge will begin to break down which will allow

storms to drop farther south into California. Virtually all of 

the AI and ensemble models are indicating a return of rain to 

southern California before Christmas but there remains a large 

amount of uncertainty on timing and strength. Likely dry through 

at least the 21st of Dec and possibly as late as the 24th.



In the meantime, temperatures will remain well above normal 

through the end of next week but with a slow cooling trend.



&&



.AVIATION...12/1727Z.



At 1704Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 300 feet deep. The top of 

the inversion was 1900 feet with a temperatures of 22 Celsius.



Overall, low to moderate confidence in 18Z TAF Package.



VFR conditions expected at desert airfields (KPMD & KWJF).



VLIFR or LIFR conditions will likely have more expansive coverage

tonight into Saturday morning. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may

be off +/- 3 hours, and flight minimums off by one category. There

is a 20% chance V/LIFR conds after 14Z Saturday at KPRB. Very low

confidence if and when CIGs arrive at KSBP. 



KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in TAF. Arrival and clearing 

times of CIGs may be off +/- 3 hours. Expecting longer coverage 

of V/LIFR conditions as early as late this afternoon through

tomorrow morning. VV001-OVC004 with 1/4SM FG possible to likely 

at times. No significant east wind component expected through 

period.



KBUR...High confidence in VFR conditions through at least Saturday

with light winds.



&&



.MARINE...12/135 PM.



Areas of dense fog with very low visibility will affect the 

coastal waters through at least Saturday. This fog could form 

anywhere at anytime and is expected to expand in coverage to

include a majority of the coastal waters. The focus will be in 

the overnight through morning hours with scattered pockets likely

through the afternoon and evening.



High confidence in light winds and lowering seas through the 

weekend. Gusty NW-W winds will likely return Monday and Tuesday. 

Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds most likely across the 

Outer Waters south of Point Conception. 



Winds will become stronger Wednesday and Thursday, bringing a 

30% chc for Gale Force winds from near Point Conception to San 

Nicolas Island including portions of the Santa Barbara Channel. 

These stronger winds will likely result in choppy seas.



&&



.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CA...Dense Fog Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST Saturday for

      zones 340-346-349-350-354-362-366. (See LAXNPWLOX).

PZ...NONE.



&&



$$



PUBLIC...MW

AVIATION...Black

MARINE...Black

SYNOPSIS...MW



weather.gov/losangeles



Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:

https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox