FXUS66 KLOX 032122 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 222 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS...03/134 PM. Near normal weather conditions are expected through this weekend with continued night to morning low clouds and fog for coast and valleys. Much warmer temperatures are expected by the middle of next week, especially inland. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...03/201 PM. Below normal temperatures will continue through the weekend as weak troughing persists along the West Coast. High and low temperatures will remain fairly static through that period. The marine layer will be a consistent feature as well during the night and morning hours across coast and most coastal valleys, and may linger at some beaches well into the afternoon, especially north of Pt Conception. Not seeing to much in the way of winds except the usual gusty winds into the Antelope Valley and low grade Sundowners across southwest Santa Barbara County. Some areas may get some smoke impacts from the Madre Fire in southeast SLO County over the coming days. .LONG TERM (MON-THU)...03/220 PM. Very little change in overall weather conditions expected through at least Monday as weak troughing continues. A high pressure ridge over Arizona will slowly start to expand west into California Tuesday into Wednesday and push the West Coast trough farther north. Virtually all of the ensemble solutions are showing this pattern evolving so confidence is higher than usual for an event that is almost a week away. Models are indicating a 600dam high across the 4 corners region with light southeast flow aloft. There is expected to be an active tropical pattern across Mexico during this time as well so there is a possibility of monsoon moisture entering the region in addition to the heat. Temperatures are expected to climb well into the triple digits across the interior and parts of the warmest coastal valleys as well so heat advisories and/or warnings are a possibility as well. However, models still maintain a moderate onshore flow during this period so coastal area temperatures will be much more moderate with a shallow marine inversion in place. && .AVIATION...03/1751Z. At 1713Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1400 ft deep. The top of the inversion was around 4000 feet with a temperature of 21 C. High confidence in VFR TAFs for desert airfields (KWJF and KPMD). Moderate confidence in remaining TAFs. There is a 30% chance VFR conds prevail at KPRB. Timing of CIG/VSBY restrictions may be off by 2 hours and flight minimums inaccurate by one category. FU from the Madre Fire may be present at times around KSMX, but VSBYs should remain greater than 6SM. KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Arrival and Departure of CIGs may be off by 2 hours, and minimum cig height could be inaccurate by (+/- 300 ft). No significant wind issues expected. KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 20% chance of no low clouds arrive tonight. && .MARINE...03/202 PM. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) winds are likely across the Outer Waters much of the time through the 4th of July Weekend. SCA winds are also likely each afternoon and evening for the nearshore waters along the Central Coast Friday through the weekend, with local wind gusts to 25 kt across far northern portions of PZZ645 this evening. Local Gale Force wind gusts are possible through Sunday, with the best chances across PZZ670 (60%) and around the western Channel Islands (20%) Friday afternoon/eve. Peak sea heights are expected to range from 8 to 10 feet through the weekend. Inside the southern California bight, there is a moderate (30-50%) chance of SCA level winds each afternoon and evening Friday through the weekend across the Santa Barbara Channel. Most likely across the western portion. Local gusts up to 20 kts may occur near Point Dume, and into the San Pedro Channel during the aforementioned time. Patchy dense fog may affect the coastal waters, especially north of Point Conception overnight and in the morning hours through this weekend. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Saturday evening for zones 87-354-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX). PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Sunday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX). Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && $$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION...Black MARINE...Black/Lewis SYNOPSIS...MW weather.gov/losangeles Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at: https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox