FXUS66 KHNX 091804

AFDHNX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Hanford CA

1104 AM PDT Fri May 9 2025





&&



.KEY MESSAGES...



1. Drying and warming will continue until Saturday with well 

above normal temperatures.



2. Triple digit heat is currently at a 40 to 60 percent 

probability of occurrence in the southern San Joaquin Valley and

the Kern County desert on Saturday. Otherwise, expect 

widespread highs in the mid to upper 90's in the remainder of 

the Central Valley mainly north of Kern County.



3. A disturbance expected to impact Central California early 

next week as unsettled weather will exist from Sunday into the 

middle of next week.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

The ridge that has been building into the southwest of the CONUS 

will continue to intensify today, leading to well above normal 

high temperatures this afternoon. Saturday will also see highs 

well above normal, with a 40 to 60 percent chance for triple 

digits in the Valley and Kern County Desert. These temperatures 

carry a moderate heat risk, meaning most individuals sensitive 

to heat will be affected by it. This heat will also lead to low 

relative humidities, with the Valley likely to see RH's below 

20% today and tomorrow. This and breezy winds during this time 

create a minor fire risk for the Valley and the West Side Hills,

where if a fire were to start, it may spread more quickly and 

easily.



Fortunately, this heat won't last long, as a disturbance is 

expected to pass through the region beginning on Sunday and 

exiting by Wednesday. This disturbance will bring highs down 

below normal for this time of year, but it will also bring 

strong winds to much of the region, especially to the Mojave 

Desert Slopes and the Sierra Nevada crest. Current probabilities

for 55 mph wind gusts along the Slopes are 80 to 90 percent, 

and similar chances can be seen along the Sierra crest. The 

foothills may also see a small amount of rainfall, with the 

highest chances of 20 to 25% chance for measurable rainfall on 

Tuesday. Ridging is expected to take over once the disturbance 

moves out on Wednesday, with highs reaching back to above 

normal.



Long range ensemble models are showing another disturbance may

pass through Central California, though the current models are

uncertain on the placement and intensity of it. This will become

more clear with further model runs.



&&





.AVIATION...

00Z Update: 



VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours in Central 

California.



&&



.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...

ISSUED:  05/08/2025 14:57

EXPIRES: 05/09/2025 23:59

None.







&&



.CERTAINTY...



The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium.

The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.



Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit

www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information

and/or to provide feedback.



&&



.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



Public/Aviation/Fire Weather....EW



weather.gov/hanford