FXUS66 KHNX 090513 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 1013 PM PDT Thu May 8 2025 .UPDATE... Aviation Section Updated && && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Drying and warming will continue until Saturday with well above normal temperatures. 2. Triple digit heat is currently at a 45 to 80 percent probability of occurrence in the southern San Joaquin Valley and the Kern County desert on Saturday. Otherwise, expect widespread highs in the mid to upper 90's in the remainder of the Central Valley mainly north of Kern County. 3. Another disturbance expected to impact Central California early next week as unsettled weather will exist from Sunday into the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Mainly clear skies prevail across the Central California interior today. Warmer daytime highs are on tap today until Saturday with at least of degrees of warming each day. Also, we observed overnight lows around 3 to 8 degrees higher than yesterday's. Expect widespread highs in the lower 90's today and more summer-like temperatures with highs in the mid to upper 90s by Friday. Chances for triple digits on Friday are quite low, or less than 15 percent. However, Saturday's highs will continue to climb. Latest probabilities of triple digit highs in the southern SJ Valley and the Kern County desert are now at around 45 to 80 percent, or a slight increase from yesterday. Some probabilities of highs reaching at least 100 degrees on Saturday for select cities in the southern SJ Valley: Bakersfield 65%, Lamont 78%, Arvin 74%, Lost Hills 59%, and Buttonwillow 56%. As for the desert, the best chances are at Ridgecrest (59%) and Boron/North Edwards (45%), but with lower chances elsewhere. So, Saturday will be the hottest day of the year so far, expect at least moderate impacts due to heat, especially in Kern County and much of the San Joaquin Valley up to Merced County with widespread highs at least in the upper 90's. Those sensitive to the heat and anyone not accustomed to the heat can also expect moderate impacts with heat-related illnesses possible if not prepared. So, here are some tips to deal with the heat: wear loose clothing, stay in shaded or indoor areas with air conditioning during the hottest time of the day (usually late morning to early evening), drink plenty of water, and limit outdoor activities during those hottest periods. For Sunday, it appears cooler for our area, although with smaller changes in eastern Kern County, as we won't see much cooling there until Monday. Sunday will remain above normal in terms of maximum temperatures. Afterward, we return to cooler than normal temperatures for Monday until next Thursday, with the coolest day on Tuesday, including forecast highs in the lower to mid 70's at the warmest locations. Precipitation chances remain over the Sierra Nevada for Monday and Tuesday, with the threat of showers and afternoon/evening thunderstorms. In terms of model guidance, the ensembles suggest a trough pattern for us during this period, although quite a bit of uncertainty exists regarding exact precipitation amounts and locations. For now, the best chances will be over Yosemite NP on both Monday and Tuesday (up to 40 percent on Monday evening and 30 percent for Tuesday) with slight chances elsewhere in our Sierra. && .AVIATION... 6Z Update: VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours in Central California && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 05/08/2025 14:57 EXPIRES: 05/09/2025 23:59 None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ public...BSO aviation....JPK weather.gov/hanford