FXUS66 KHNX 032316

AFDHNX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Hanford CA

316 PM PST Tue Feb 3 2026





.KEY MESSAGES...



1. Very High Transportation Risk with visibilities from 200 

feet to zero through Noon Thursday.



2. Dense fog will continue through the rest of the work week. 



3. There is a 50 percent of 40 mph gusts or greater in the 

Mojave Desert Slopes, Tejon Pass and southern Kern Mountains 

tomorrow through Thursday.



4. Medium Confidence of a pattern change with rain and snow

returning next Monday February 9th or Tuesday Feb 10th.



&&



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 953 AM PST Tue Feb 3 2026/ 



.UPDATE...

Aviation Section Updated.



Aviation...Around 20Z, conditions will gradually improve to IFR

and even MVFR to VFR. After 20Z, MVFR with areas of VFR will 

dominate until 06Z. There is a 40 to 50 percent chance of LIFR 

conditions after 06Z and a 55 to 65 percent chance of LIFR 

conditions at 12Z Wednesday. Otherwise, VFR conditions are 

expected for the Sierra Nevada, Coastal Range, and Mojave Desert

for the next 24 hours. Winds will be around 5 kts from the west

northwest this afternoon. 



AIR QUALITY ISSUES...On Tuesday February 3 2026, Unhealthy for

Sensitive Groups in Fresno, Kern, and Tulare Counties. 

Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning For All in 

Fresno and Kern Counties. No Burning Unless Registered in Kings,

Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in 

Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and 

Forest.



PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 326 AM PST Tue Feb 3 2026/ 



DISCUSSION...



As the stable pattern continues into the midweek, fog formation

is possible each day through Wednesday, with probabilities for 

1/4 mile visibilities at about 60-70% each day. A Dense Fog 

Advisory has been issued through Wednesday at 12PM due to these 

conditions, with the fog forming each night around 10PM and 

dissipating around 11AM-12PM the next day. There is a Very High 

Transportation Risk with this fog as visibilities may reduce 

down to 200 feet or less, especially during the hours around 

sunrise. While the ridge over the Valley is expected to remain 

in place, an area of low pressure is expected to form off the 

coast of Baja California on Tuesday that will create a Rex Block

pattern over the southwest, which will lead to increased 

chances for strong winds along the Mojave Desert Slopes and the 

southern Kern Mountains as the low pushes air up from the 

southeast. Current probabilities for 40 mph wind gusts in that 

region are 50-60% on Wednesday and 40-50% on Thursday. 



As the Rex Block breaks down and moves out through Saturday and

into Sunday, a proper trough is expected to move through the 

region by Monday, which brings chances for rainfall back to 

Central California, with probabilities for 0.01 inches of rain 

at 40-50% in the Valley and 60-70% in the Sierra Nevada and its 

Foothills north of Tulare County on Monday afternoon. These 

chances remain similar into Tuesday afternoon, but spread into 

the whole CWA. 



The Climate Prediction Center continues to place our area under 

above normal precipitation (likely 50-60% for days 6-10 and

leaning 40-50% for days 8-14). The 6-10 temperature outlook

continues with above normal, though that has reduced to leaning

above 33-40%. The 8-14 day temperature outlook has introduced 

leaning below 33-50% for California, which indicates the

possibility for further troughing during that time period of the

10th through the 16th.



A few scenarios are possible for the pattern change coming next

week. There is a greater chance of a stormier pattern remaining

though much of next week, confidence is high that precipitation

will return next week. Although less probable but still

possible, storminess passes through quickly and a dry, stable

pattern returns. 



&&



.CERTAINTY...



The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.

The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.



Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit

www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information

and/or to provide feedback.



&&



.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Wind Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 10 AM PST Thursday for 

CAZ335-336-338.

Dense Fog Advisory until noon PST Thursday for CAZ301>303-

305>307-309>316.

&&



$$



public...Castro/Mattarochia

aviation....Castro/Mattarochia



weather.gov/hanford