FXUS65 KVEF 091753

AFDVEF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Las Vegas NV

1053 AM PDT Fri May 9 2025



.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will continue to climb today and peak on 

Saturday. An incoming system will bring gusty winds and cooler 

temperatures to the early starting Sunday through the first half of 

next week.



&&



.UPDATE...Temperatures this afternoon will top out around 3 to 6 

degrees warmer than yesterday with light winds and mostly sunny 

skies across the area. This warming trend will continue into the 

weekend with the hottest temperatures we've seen so far this year 

expected over the weekend.



&&



.SHORT TERM...Today and Saturday



Temperatures continue to climb today and tomorrow as a ridge builds 

over the southwestern United States. Afternoon highs will be 5 to 10 

degrees above average today, increasing to 10 to 15 degrees above 

average on Saturday, the warmest day of this stretch of heat for 

most locations. The probability of hitting 100 degrees in Las Vegas 

on Saturday has gone down since the previous forecast package, 

currently sitting at a 10 percent chance of occurrence. Meanwhile, 

Death Valley has a 50 percent probability of reaching 110 degrees at 

Furnace Creek, which would be the warmest day of the year so far. 

Moderate (Level 2) HeatRisk begins to appear in the desert valleys 

today, expanding in area on Saturday with pockets of Major (Level 3) 

in Death Valley and the Colorado River Valley. Major HeatRisk 

indicates that this level of heat will affect anyone without 

effective cooling or adequate hydration. Plan ahead if spending time 

outdoors, including where to find water and cool spaces.



Southerly breezes start to pick up on Saturday in southern Nevada 

and southeastern California as low pressure starts to move in from 

the northwest. The strongest of these winds should mainly be over 

high terrain in Inyo, Esmeralda, and central Nye counties but remain 

sub-advisory. Waves up to 1.5 feet are possible in Lake Mead and 

Lake Mohave. 



.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday. 



Very little change from yesterday, which increases confidence. 

Model clusters remain in good agreement Sunday showing the ridge 

axis beginning to move east in response to low pressure nearing 

the West Coast. There is slightly better agreement among the model

clusters Monday and Tuesday, as they depict the incoming low 

reaching the coast Monday and then nearing or reaching our area 

Tuesday. For Wednesday and Thursday, there is increasing spread 

regarding how quickly the main low will exit into the Northern 

Plains, but good agreement that a weak, baggy trough gets left 

behind over the Desert Southwest. Turning to sensible weather, for

Sunday, expect increasing winds and high temperatures slightly 

cooler than Saturday in the western zones and similar to Saturday 

in the central and eastern zones. Winds could peak in the southern

Great Basin Sunday, with the Mojave Desert more likely on Monday.

Wind headlines could be needed. High temperatures should drop 15 

to 25 degrees areawide from Sunday to Tuesday before beginning a 

slow recovery Wednesday. Although rain chances cannot be ruled 

out, the most likely effects will be the winds and much cooler 

temperatures.



&&



.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast 

Package...Mainly light winds favoring a northeast direction through 

this afternoon with light southwest winds overnight. Wind speeds 

will remain under 8KT through the period. Dry conditions will 

persist with only a few afternoon clouds around 12kft expected 

today. Looking ahead, breezy south to southeast winds will develop 

late Saturday morning into the afternoon with gusts to 20KT likely.



For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast 

California...For the 18Z Forecast Package... KBIH will see breezy 

southeast winds again this afternoon, with speeds a bit stronger 

than yesterday as gust over 20KT are like (80% chance).  Wind gusts 

will end after 00Z but remain around 10kt, then by 06Z, wind at KBIH 

will veer northwest and drop to 8KT or less for the rest of the 

night. Otherwise- light, diurnal wind pattern will persist for most 

locations today and tonight. Dry conditions and a few afternoon fair 

weather clouds can be expected through the TAF period. Increasing 

southeast to south winds expected over most areas Saturday 

afternoon.

&&



.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report

any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating

procedures.



&&



$$



UPDATE...Stessman

SHORT TERM...Meltzer

LONG TERM...Morgan

AVIATION...Gorelow



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