FXUS65 KVEF 030838

AFDVEF



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Las Vegas NV

138 AM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



* One more day of thunderstorm activity before dry conditions

  return.



* Dry and breezy conditions will lead to elevated fire danger on

  Friday. 



* Warming trend expected next week with major heat risk returning

  by midweek.



&&



.DISCUSSION...through the middle of next week.



Thunderstorm activity remains quite active tonight with ongoing

storms across central Mohave County and the Colorado River Valley.

This activity is being fueled by fairly strong forcing immediately

ahead of a shortwave trough axis, despite waning instability 

during the overnight hours. These storms will gradually lift 

northward overnight, staying mainly east of the Las Vegas Valley 

though can't rule out a storm or two even into the metro area, 

especially along the east side. 



The shortwave trough will finally shift eastward midday tomorrow,

with drier air spreading from west to east. Additional storm

development is still anticipated across Lincoln, Clark, and Mohave

Counties, though activity is favored fairly early in the day

(through about mid-afternoon) before drier air mixes down and 

stability increases by the evening hours. Gusty winds and brief

downpours will be the primary impacts with any storms that form. 



By Friday, drier air will have overspread the region and an 

additional shortwave pushing into the Great Basin will spread a 

belt of enhanced low level flow across much of southern Nevada.

Given the low humidity, gusty winds expected, and dry state of

regional grasses and vegetation, fire danger will be quite

elevated. There is also the consideration that it will be the 4th

of July. Strongest winds will be focused across Lincoln County

where a Red Flag Warning has been issued for Friday afternoon and

evening, but enhanced fire danger is expected across much of the

region. 



After temps hover slightly below or near seasonal normals through

the weekend, a large and dominant ridge will build over the

interior West next week. This will send temperatures climbing,

with widespread major heat risk advertised by Wednesday and

Thursday. This looks to translate to 110+ high temperatures across

much of the Mojave Desert including Las Vegas, and 120+ within the

lower reaches of Death Valley. 



&&



.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...East 

to southeast winds are expected by late morning, and a few gusts 

to 20 knots will be possible after 19Z. After a dry morning, 

additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in 

the afternoon across southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona. 

Thunderstorms should be more isolated than today, but could still 

produce lightning, gusty outflow winds, brief heavy rain, and CIGs

below 10kft 



For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast 

California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Conditions at the Las 

Vegas area TAF sites will be similar to those described above for 

Harry Reid.  Elsewhere, scattered convection is expected on Thursday 

afternoon, with additional thunderstorm impacts possible across 

southern Nevada and northwestern Arizona. However, these impacts are 

expected to be more isolated than those seen today.  Convection is 

expected to end across southern Nevada by early evening and across 

northwest Arizona by late evening tomorrow.  Winds will generally 

follow typical diurnal patterns in the Owens Valley and western 

Mojave Desert. In the Colorado River valley, southerly winds are 

expected, although they will be more subject to convective 

influences during the afternoon and evening. 



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...Breezy southwest winds will overspread the region on 

Friday and combine with min RH dropping into the single digits 

and teens. Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated in 

Lincoln County where a Red Flag Warning has been posted, with 

elevated risk elsewhere. Dry conditions are expected to continue 

heading into next week along with a warming trend.



&&



.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report

any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating

procedures.



&&



$$



DISCUSSION/FIRE...Outler 

AVIATION...Planz



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