FXUS65 KTWC 272011

AFDTWC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tucson AZ

111 PM MST Mon Oct 27 2025



.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions and high clouds at times will prevail 

through the end of the week. High temperatures warm to several 

degrees above normal, except across eastern areas on Wednesday into 

Thursday when cooler air pushes in from the east. Morning low 

temperatures Thursday morning will be close to freezing in the 

normally colder Sulphur Springs Valley. Gusty east winds Wednesday, 

especially for locales more exposed to easterly winds. 



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.DISCUSSION...Dry conditions with temperatures several degrees 

above normal prevail this afternoon across southeast Arizona with 

flat ridging aloft. Over the next couple of days, the ridging aloft 

will become more amplified as downstream troughing increases across 

the Central US. This will result in surface high pressure developing 

along the front range of the Rockies with a back door cold front 

sliding into our forecast area Tuesday night. This back door 

front/east push will result in gusty easterly winds, especially 

during the day Wednesday where some favored locales for easterly 

winds will see sustained winds of 15-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph. 

The back door cold front will also bring in cooler temperatures 

Wednesday across Graham/Greenlee/Cochise Counties where highs will 

drop 5 to 10 degrees compared to Tuesday. For the Tucson area, highs 

will drop a few degrees compared to Tuesday with little change out 

west. Easterly winds subside Wednesday night and this will allow 

ideal radiational cooling with low temperatures getting getting near 

freezing in the normally coldest spots such as the Sulphur Springs 

Valley/Willcox area Thursday morning. We did go ahead and lower the 

minimum temp forecast for Thursday morning for those locales as we 

saw the NBM struggle last week with a similar setup. As a point of 

reference, the normal first freeze for Willcox is October 24.  



For the end of the week into the weekend, dry west to northwest flow 

initially with stronger ridging building back in over the weekend. 

After the brief cooling for eastern areas Wednesday, temperatures 

quickly rebound Thursday with above normal highs through the 

weekend. 

  

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.AVIATION...Valid through 29/00Z

Clear skies/SKC conditions thru the forecast period. SFC wind less 

than 10 kts, favoring a WLY/NWLY direction thru 28/03Z, then 

variable in direction from 28/03Z-28/18Z before transitioning to 

more NELY/ELY aft 28/18Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF 

amendments.



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.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions are expected the next 7 days. High 

temperatures will warm to 3-7 degrees above normal in most locations 

this week, although 5 to 10 degrees of cooling will occur Wednesday 

across eastern areas (Cochise, Graham and Greenlee counties) as 

easterly winds overspread the area. 20-foot winds will generally be 

15 mph or less, with occasional gusts to 20-25 mph through the end 

of the week, except on Wednesday. 20-foot winds on Wednesday will be 

east-southeast at around 15-20 mph, gusting to 30-35 mph. Minimum RH 

values will be in the 12-22 percent range in most locations this 

week. 



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.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



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