FXUS65 KTWC 222003

AFDTWC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tucson AZ

103 PM MST Sun Mar 22 2026



.SYNOPSIS...Daily record high temperatures will continue for much

of this upcoming week as the historic March heat wave continues. 

Visitors and people not typically accustomed to extreme heat are 

urged to take precautions during the hottest hours of the day and 

to limit outdoor activities.



&&



.DISCUSSION...The same story will continue through the week:

record breaking temperatures; and 15-20 degrees above normal.

Today, the 500mb ridge has flatten due to a passing shortwave

which is knocking temperatures down a few degrees. It will still

be unseasonably warm. The flatten ridge will bring westerly winds

with occasional strong gust in the afternoon. 



The ridge of high pressure will reassert itself over the region,

providing a slight warming trend. Tucson has a 25% chance of

experiencing 100 degrees on Wednesday through Friday. Towards the

end of the week, high pressure will shift easterly into Texas with

relative lower pressure to the northwest. This will bring easterly

breezes on Friday into Saturday. The Gila River Valley will see

the stronger side of the winds. 



Ensemble models show an southerly upper level flow that will bring

in moisture into the region. The grand ensemble mean show 

precipitable water content at to slighlty above the 97th 

percentile, values of 0.68 to 0.74 inches by the end of the 

weekend. There are uncertainties on how this pattern will evolve 

over the west, but for now, there are increasing chances for 

precipitation by the weekend. 





&&



.AVIATION...Valid through 24/00Z.

SCT-BKN clouds AOA 20-25k ft AGL. SFC winds westerly to

northwesterly 8-13kts with gusts up to 20 kts through 23/03z.

After, SFC winds terrain driven and less than 10 kts. By 23/18Z,

SFC winds westerly to northwesterly at 8-13kts. Aviation 

discussion not updated for TAF amendments.





&&



.FIRE WEATHER...A ridge of high pressure will continue to bring

temperatures 15 to 20 degrees above seasonal normals, although it

will be lower than the previous weekend. Very dry conditions will

continue through most of week, with minimum RH values at all 

elevations generally in the 5-12 percent range. Moisture will be 

moving into the region by the weekend, leading to 20-40 percent 

chances for precipitation by Sunday for areas Tucson and east. 

20-foot winds will generally be 10-15 mph with some afternoon 

gusts to 20-25 mph through Thursday. Easterly breezes will pick 

starting on Friday and lasting through at least Saturday morning. 





&&



.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ501>509.



&&



$$



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