FXUS65 KTWC 120758

AFDTWC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tucson AZ

1257 AM MST Fri Dec 12 2025



.SYNOPSIS...Dry and warm weather will continue through the end of 

next week. High temperatures will be well above normal, with some 

locations approaching record levels through the weekend.



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.DISCUSSION...High pressure aloft will be the dominate weather 

feature across southeast Arizona through the end of next week. The 

ridge axis will slowly shift from its current location along the 

California coast to our east on Sunday. The ridge will then flatten 

next week as a series of systems moves into the Pacific Northwest 

and the upper high becomes centered over the eastern Pacific and 

Baja Spur. 



This pattern will lead to dry conditions and unseasonably warm 

temperatures through the end of next week. High temperatures will 

warm to 10-15 degrees above normal through this period. Some 

locations will approach record high levels through the upcoming 

weekend. 



The only other notable weather during this stretch will be a switch 

in the wind direction Sunday into Monday, as the ridge transitions 

to our east and winds become easterly. The current guidance shows 

sustained wind speeds in the 10-15 mph range, with gusts to 25-30 

mph in locations not sheltered from easterly winds. The strongest 

east-southeast winds are expected across the Tucson Metro, upper 

Gila River Valley near Safford and across eastern Santa Cruz/western 

Cochise counties. 



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.AVIATION...Valid through 13/12Z. 

Clear skies thru 12/18Z, then increasing high clouds AOA 20k feet 

AGL thru the remainder of the forecast period. SFC wind less than 10 

kts this forecast cycle, favoring a WLY/NWLY direction during the 

afternoon/early evening hours and variable in direction at other 

times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.



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.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions are expected through the end of next 

week, along with high temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal. 20-

foot winds will generally be 15 mph or less and terrain driven the 

next seven days, except Sunday into Monday when east-southeast winds 

of 10-15 mph and gusts to 25-30 mph are expected. Minimum RH values 

at all elevations will generally be in the 15-25 percent range into 

the middle of next week, with the potential for a slight increase 

into the 20-35 percent range across eastern areas (Cochise, Graham 

and Greenlee counties) on Monday.  



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.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.



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$$



Zell



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