FXUS65 KTWC 092135 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 234 PM MST Fri May 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS...High temperatures will be above normal through Monday, cooling to below normal levels mid to late next week. Gusty east winds on Saturday, especially during the morning hours, then breezy to windy southwest winds Monday through Wednesday of next week. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure aloft will continue to build across the region through the weekend. This will lead to high temperatures of 5-8 degrees above normal today and Saturday and then 8-11 degrees above normal Sunday and Monday. The lower deserts west of Tucson will be in the lower 100's as early as Saturday, with 100 degrees from Tucson westward on Sunday. Highs then lower a degree or two on Monday as the ridge of high pressure begins to shift eastward. Easterly winds will prevail across southeast Arizona into Sunday, with a strong easterly gradient and east-southeast winds on Saturday, especially during the morning. This will bring near critical fire weather conditions across portions of southeast Arizona Saturday. Wind gusts during the mid to late morning hours Saturday will be strongest in the Tucson basin, with wind gusts around 40 mph at the Tucson International Airport. Not all locations will feel this easterly wind due to topography blocking easterly flow. A storm system will then move across the Great Basin early to mid next week. This system will cool temperatures back down to near to slightly below normal by mid to late next week. This system will track to far north for any precipitation across southeastern Arizona, but will result in strong and gusty winds. Near critical isolated fire weather conditions are expected as early as Monday afternoon, with more widespread critical fire weather conditions Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION...Valid through 11/00Z. FEW-SCT clouds at 10k-15k ft AGL thru 10/03Z, with clear skies/SKC conditions thru the remainder of the forecast period. SFC wind NELY thru SELY at 10-15 kts thru 10/09Z. Increasing ELY/SELY SFC wind aft 10/09Z, with speeds of 15-25 kts and gusts 25-35 kts between 10/12Z and 10/20Z. The strongest wind will be in the vicinity of the KTUS terminal with gusts between 35-40kts. SFC wind slowly diminishing aft 10/20Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...High pressure aloft will build across the area through the weekend, resulting in high temperatures warming to 8-11 degrees above normal by Sunday and Monday. Easterly winds will prevail across southeast Arizona into Sunday, with a strong easterly gradient and east-southeast 20-foot winds on Saturday. This will bring near critical fire weather conditions across portions of southeast Arizona Saturday. Winds speeds will likely be above critical thresholds Saturday morning, although RH values will still be above critical thresholds. As RH values lower to below 15 percent by the late morning hours Saturday, wind speeds will be diminishing below critical thresholds in most locations. Maximum 20-foot wind speeds on Saturday will be 20-30 mph with gusts between 30-40 mph in locations exposed to easterly winds. A storm system will move to our north early to mid next week. This system will result in high temperatures lowering to near to slightly below normal mid to late next week. This system will also result in breezy to windy conditions the first half of next week. Near critical fire weather conditions potentially as early as Monday, with more widespread critical fire weather conditions expected Tuesday and Wednesday. && && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Zell Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson