FXUS65 KTWC 070931 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 231 AM MST Thu May 7 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Expect a warming trend over the coming days high temperatures around 10 degrees above normal on Sunday and near record levels on Monday. && .DISCUSSION... While a broad ridge sits over the eastern Pacific and west coast today, a weak low pressure circulation will rotate east through far northern Sonora. The center of the circulation will remain south of the International Border, but a very modest increase in atmospheric moisture associated with this low will make its way into southeastern Arizona. Precipitable water values will increase to 0.3-0.5 inches with surface dew points remaining mostly below 30 degrees, setting up an atmospheric profile with adequate instability for cloud build-ups and potentially a few showers mainly near the southern border and high elevation areas of Santa Cruz and Cochise counties. Low surface dew points and the dry sub-cloud layer will be conducive to increased wind gusts up to 40 mph with showers/virga this afternoon. There is some uncertainty with the coverage and northern extent of this activity as recent model runs have increased the potential coverage and have even brought shower activity as far north as the Tucson metro. 00Z HREF/REFS/NBM probabilities (already on the low side at 10-15 percent) keep chances for measurable precipitation mostly south of a Sells- Sahuarita-Benson line but build-ups should occur over the Catalinas/Rincons and east through the Chiricahuas, as well as over the White Mountains in northern Graham/Greenlee counties. High temperatures today will sit just below normal but quickly rise above normal over the coming days as the upper ridge shifts east. Triple digit highs return to western Pima county by Saturday and then into the Tucson metro by Sunday/Monday. Near record highs will be possible Monday with forecast highs exceeding 10 degrees above normal. In the early to middle portions of the next week, the upper level ridge will likely shift east which will allow mean flow to turn to the south, ushering in some mid-level moisture. There remains model disagreement in how soon this moisture arrives as recent ensemble members the GEFS/GEPS bring moisture and convection chances into southeastern Arizona as early as Monday. Probability for measurable precipitation still remains very low at any given point and day given differences in moisture quality/timing but this period will need to be watched for the threat of lightning and gusty outflow winds. && .AVIATION...Valid through 08/12Z. SKC through 07/18Z, then SCT clouds 9k-12k feet mainly from KTUS south and east through KOLS-KDUG. Slight chance of a shower mainly along the international border from 07/20Z to 08/03Z. Cloud build-ups may carry the slight chance of virga with a gusty outflow wind up to 35 kts this afternoon and early evening. Otherwise winds light and under 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... A warming and drying trend is expected over the next several days. Minimum relative humidities 8 to 14 percent in desert locations today and 15-20 percent in the mountains. Cloud build-ups likely today across Santa Cruz and mountain areas of Cochise, as well as the Catalina/Rincons and White Mountains. Build-ups from the Catalinas south and east through the International Border carry a threat of gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph this afternoon and early evening. A stray lightning strike can't be ruled out. Otherwise winds are mostly light and under 15 mph. Winds will remain generally light each day with minimum relative humidities falling further into the single digits in the desert elevations and below 15 percent in the mountains by the weekend.&& .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Edwards AVIATION...Edwards FIRE WEATHER...Edwards Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson