FXUS65 KTWC 062140

AFDTWC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tucson AZ

240 PM MST Wed May 6 2026



.SYNOPSIS...A beautiful May day today will give way a warming 

trend into the upcoming weekend.



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.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery this afternoon showed mostly 

flat cumulus clouds over the mountains, except across the White

where they had a bit more growth to them. Otherwise it was sunny

with gorgeous early May temperatures with most of the area in 

the mid 60s to upper 70s. Water vapor imagery this afternoon 

showed a weak upper level circulation forming over nrn Baja. 

This feature will move east across northern Sonora MX tomorrow. 

PWATs with this feature less than 0.50" but with daytime heating

expect cloud build-ups mainly S and E of Tucson and with the 

low-levels on the dry side, expect mostly virga although the NBM

has been slowly increasing PoPs today along the Intl border. 

Main threat from any showers/virga that develop will be brief 

wind gusts up to 35 mph. Otherwise the main theme heading into 

the weekend will much warmer high temps as triple-digit highs

return to the lower deserts. 



Days 4-7 (May 10th to 13th)

Very warm with well above normal high temperatures and moderate

HeatRisk thru the 12th. Near record highs on Monday, especially

for the lower desert locals. With the upper high shifting east

on the 12th and 13th, mid-level flow turns to the south, which

may advect mid-level moisture into the eastern areas. At this

time, the NBM PoPs for the eastern areas on the 12th and 13th

are below 10%, but if model trends continue, those likely will

go up over the next several days.



8-14 day outlooks (May 14th to 20st)

Temperature: Likely above normal (57%-61%)

Precipitation: Leaning above normal (33%-43%)



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.AVIATION...Valid through 08/00Z.

Few cumulus clouds over the mtns until 07/03z, otrw SKC thru

07/18z, then SCT clouds 9k-12k ft AGL mainly from KTUS S and E 

thru end of valid pd. SLGT CHC of -SHRA mnly along Intl border 

aft 07/20z. SFC winds NWLY 5-12 kts until 07/03z then again aft 

07/19z. At other times SFC winds terrain driven less than 10 

kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...Below normal temperatures again today with far 

lighter winds than Tuesday. Winds this afternoon west-northwest 

and mainly under 12 mph, otherwise terrain driven this morning 

and tonight. Minimum relative humidities mainly above 15 percent

across desert locations and above 20 percent in the mountains. 

Further drying is expected through the week as temperatures heat

up as well. Winds remain generally light each day with minimum 

relative humidities falling into the single digits and below 15 

percent in the mountains by the weekend.



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.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.



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