FXUS65 KTWC 030917

AFDTWC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tucson AZ

217 AM MST Thu Jul 3 2025



.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture remains across southeast Arizona today, 

however thunderstorm coverage will be less compared to Wednesday. 

The storms that do occur will produce locally heavy rain and gusty 

winds. A drying trend is expected for the July 4th holiday and this 

weekend with storm coverage more isolated and focused on locales 

south of Tucson. Temperatures will remain below normal through 

Friday before warming back up to above normal levels by Sunday and 

continuing through much of next week. 



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.DISCUSSION...Skies are mostly clear across the western deserts this 

morning with mostly cloudy skies from Tucson eastward as residual 

showers continue. In the very near term, we do expect this activity 

to continue to lessen and IR satellite shows cloud tops continue to 

warm which indicates that leftover shower activity should diminish 

through the early morning hours. 



There is ample moisture across our forecast area today and that is 

reflected in the surface dewpoints which are currently in the 60s 

across all valleys. As the mid-upper level trough axis approaches, 

considerably drier air that will move in aloft above 500mb today. 

However, with deeper low level moisture, even though the atmosphere 

is at least partially worked over from yesterday, we expect 

scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop in the west to 

southwest flow from midday through the afternoon into the early 

evening. While the storms will be much less organized compared to 

yesterday, they will still produce locally heavy rain and gusty 

winds. Temperatures today will be about 5 to 8 degrees below 

normal. 



For Independence Day, there will be continued drying aloft as high 

pressure aloft starts to establish itself just to our south. The 

combination of the drier air aloft along with some subsidence will 

result in a lower grade monsoon day with generally isolated to low 

end scattered showers and thunderstorms. The highest chances in the 

30-40% range will be in Santa Cruz and southern Cochise Counties. 

Most of the convective activity should be diminishing after about 8 

PM for fireworks displays across the region. Temperatures Friday 

will be about 5 degrees below normal. 



A low grade monsoon pattern this weekend as high pressure aloft 

strengthens with just some residual recycled moisture for isolated 

thunderstorms mainly focused along the Int'l border where there is a 

slightly better vertical moisture profile. Temperatures this weekend 

will warm back up to seasonable levels Saturday and about 3 to 6 

degrees above normal Sunday. 



For next week, high pressure aloft will remain over Arizona 

resulting in continued above normal temperatures. There are minor 

differences in the ensembles with the high placement and this can 

can be the differentiator for southern AZ between mostly dry and 

very hot or with the high far enough north, better easterly flow 

with some moisture to bring low to mid grade monsoon activity. The 

NBM auto populated PoPs are aggressively high next week (well above 

climatology and known wet bias early in the monsoon). Those high 

PoPs aren't really reasonable in this pattern so we lowered the 

official forecast PoPs into the 20-40% range each day next week to 

better reflect the flow pattern. High temperatures will remain above 

normal next week with the above normal heights under the subtropical 

high. 



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.AVIATION...Valid through 04/12Z.

Leftover BKN-OVC clouds 8-14k ft AGL east of KTUS will diminish thru 

03/13Z. Otherwise, FEW-SCT 7-12k ft thru 03/18Z, then becoming SCT-

BKN 7-12k ft AGL from KTUS eastward thru 04/05Z before diminishing 

thru end of valid period. Scattered SHRA/TSRA is expected 03/19Z-

04/04Z with CIGS BKN 5-8k ft AGL andgusty outflow winds up to 35 

kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...Slightly below normal temperatures through 

Friday, then warming back this weekend into next week. Expect 

scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into evening with 

locally heavy rainfall. A decrease in thunderstorm activity is 

expected Friday through the weekend as the area transitions into a 

low grade monsoon pattern. An eventual uptick in monsoon activity is 

expected next week but will be dependent on how quick the high 

pressure aloft shifts north. Winds generally light and under 15 mph 

with the exception of gusty and erratic winds up to 35-45 mph near 

any thunderstorms. 



&&



.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.



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