FXUS65 KTWC 022251 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 351 PM MST Mon Feb 2 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions will continue through the end of the work week with windy conditions expeced Wednesday and Thursday. && .KEY MESSAGES... -Above normal temperatures with prevailing dry conditions expected through the remainder of the work week. -Expect windy conditions Wednesday and Thursday with minor/nusciance impacts, especially for eastern exposed areas and high terrain. -A transition into a more progressive weather pattern may bring cooler temperatures and precipitation chances next week. && .DISCUSSION... This Afternoon & Tomorrow: Scattered mid to high level clouds will continue with temperatures running around 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Little to no sensible weather impacts expected through the remainder of the work week. Wednesday & Thursday: A notable east to west surface pressure gradient will set up Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a surface high pressure glides south along the leeside of the Rocky Mountains while lower surface pressure builds over Baja California. This will result in gusty easterly winds on Wednesday into Thursday. Sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph and gusts up to 45 mph are expected at this time. Minor/nusciance impacts can occur at this threshold such as patio furniture getting kocked over and blowing dust resulting in sudden and intense reduction in visibility. Terrain areas that are exposed to easterly winds will see the fastest winds. Typically during easterly wind events the fastest wind speeds are observed during the mid to late morning (9 am MST thru Noon MST) timeframe, but this setup will actually support winds remaining elevated throughout most of the day on Wednesday and continuing into the overnight hours before gradually tapering off Thursday afternoon. We will continue to monitor for the potential for higher wind speeds, but overall forecast confidence is high that sustained winds will remain below 30 mph for most valley locations. Friday thru the weekend: An upcoming transition to a more progressive period is expected over the weekend that will put an end to the brief rex block with the breakdown of the high pressure over the Great Basin/Pacific Northwest with a cutoff stirring up some moisture and clouds for the Desert Southwest. We will most likely see cooler temperatures, periodic cloud cover, and breezy conditions heading into next week ahead of another potential weather system in the middle of next week. The latest run of the NBM (02/19Z) introduces low end (10-20%) but mentionable chances for light precipitation Sunday into Monday mainly south and east of Tucson. Diving a bit deeper into this solution, global ensembles do not depict adequate moisture to support measurable precipitation, but perhaps a few high based showers over the terrain. That being said, the Climate Prediction Center is advertising above normal precipitation (50%) and below normal (33%) temperatures in their latest 8 to 14 day outlook and ensemble total QPF plumes support the idea of a major pattern change in the extended with members showing accumulating precipitation just outside the valid seven day forecast period. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION...Valid through 04/00Z. SCT clouds AOA 10k ft AGL and SFC wind 12 kts or less thru the forecast period. SFC wind favoring a WLY/NWLY direction during the afternoon/early evening hours and variable in direction at other times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal through Wednesday. 20-foot winds will be less than 15 mph and terrain driven today and Tuesday. A strong easterly wind episode is expected Wednesday intoThursday, with sustained wind speeds of 20- 25 mph and gusts to 35-45 mph in locations exposed to east winds. Min RH levels will be in the 15-25 percent range today (30+ percent in the eastern mountains), with RH levels lowering into the 10-20 percent range at all elevations Tuesday and Wednesday. Minimum RH levels will then increase into the 18-30 percent range areawide Thursday through the weekend. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DVS Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson