FXUS65 KTWC 020750

AFDTWC



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tucson AZ

1249 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026



.SYNOPSIS...A ridge of high pressure will result in dry and warm 

conditions across southeast Arizona this week. High temperatures 

will be 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Gusty easterly winds return 

Wednesday into Thursday.



&&



.DISCUSSION...High pressure aloft will flatten out as it slides east 

of the area today, with the high pressure area reestablishing itself 

over central California into the Great Basin Tuesday and Wednesday.

This will result in continued dry conditions and high temperatures 

warming to 5-10 degrees above normal through Wednesday. 



Wednesday and Thursday, strong surface high pressure will build down 

the front range of the Rockies into west Texas. This will set the 

stage for an easterly wind episode across southeast Arizona, with 

sustained wind speeds of 20-25 mph and gusts to 35-40 mph in those 

locations exposed to easterly winds. The latest guidance numbers 

keep wind speeds below advisory criteria. High temperatures will 

cool 2-3 degrees across eastern areas on Wednesday as the east winds 

begin to kick in, with highs lowering an additional 3-5 degrees 

areawide on Thursday. However, high temperatures will still remain 

above normal.  



Late Thursday into Saturday, the models continue to latch onto a cut 

off low over the Baja, which may spread some mid-level moisture 

across the forecast area. PoPs are currently less than 10 percent 

and any precipitation (if it does occur) looks to be very light. 

High temperatures will be 4-8 degrees above normal. 



Sunday into early the following week (out at days 7-10), all signs 

point to a pattern change. The deterministic models, ensembles and 

Cluster Analysis all show west coast troughing. Of course this is 

way to far out to determine any impacts across southeast Arizona at 

this time. Stay tuned. 



&&



.AVIATION...Valid through 03/12Z.

SCT-BKN clouds AOA 20k ft AGL and SFC wind 12 kts or less thru the 

forecast period. SFC wind favoring a WLY/NWLY direction during the 

afternoon/early evening hours and variable in direction at other 

times. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.



&&



.FIRE WEATHER...High temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above 

normal through Wednesday. 20-foot winds will be less than 15 mph and 

terrain driven today and Tuesday. A strong easterly wind episode is 

expected Wednesday into Thursday, with sustained wind speeds of 20-

25 mph and gusts to 35-40 mph in locations exposed to east winds. 

Min RH levels will be in the 15-25 percent range today (30+ percent 

in the eastern mountains), with RH levels lowering into the 10-20 

percent range at all elevations Tuesday and Wednesday. Minimum RH 

levels will then increase into the 18-30 percent range areawide 

Thursday through the weekend. 



&&



.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.



&&



$$



Zell



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