FXUS65 KTFX 272345 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 545 PM MDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Relatively benign day Tuesday as upper level ridging builds in. - Breezy Wednesday before a much more calm day Thursday. - Another at least breezy period this weekend, with at least a low probability for mountain precipitation. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 146 PM MDT Mon Oct 27 2025/ - Meteorological Overview: Upper level troughing is largely exiting eastward early this afternoon. Cool air aloft in wake of this system has combined with daytime heating to result in at least isolated shower activity. Expectation is for these showers/snow showers to continue through the afternoon before daytime heating wanes. Breezy winds, mainly over the plains, will also subside as daytime heating diminishes. Upper level ridging begins to build in tonight, leading to a benign period into Tuesday. As quickly as the ridging builds in it is broken down again heading into Wednesday. The next wave moving eastward from the Pacific NW/Southern BC moves across the Northern Rockies during the day Wednesday. The greatest support for precipitation largely appears to remain north in Canada, with the primary impact to the region being a period of gusty westerly winds, particularly over the plains. The progressive pattern continues into Thursday as another brief period of ridging builds in. A day of benign weather is forecast Thursday before this ridge is gets broken down heading toward the weekend. The ridging is largely in place through Friday morning, though impacts from upstream troughing will become increasingly apparent through the day as flow aloft becomes increasingly zonal. This will result in westerly winds returning once again to the plains later in the day Friday. A more persistent zonal pattern becomes entrenched this weekend into early next week, with periods of stronger winds aloft mixing down to the surface at times this weekend. Confidence is still on the lower side as to which period this weekend will be gustiest. Given the downslope nature to winds, any precipitation that develops this weekend as embedded waves within the zonal flow move through should be limited to the Continental Divide and across Southwest Montana. - AM - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Wind Wednesday: BUFKIT soundings from the GFS at Cut Bank show a narrow window just as the surface mixes out where a 50+ kt gust would be able to mix to the surface. Meanwhile NAM soundings are not quite as aggressive. Although there is ~50-60% chance for a 58 mph gust west of Cut Bank, forecast soundings leave more to be desired. Given the lack of confidence at this point, we will forego a High Wind Watch for the Cut Bank area for Wednesday. Should confidence increase much at all, a High Wind Watch would become necessary. Wind This Weekend: Guidance has gradually tapered off of Friday being a windy day in favor of Saturday into Sunday being the windier period. Strong zonal flow looks to be in place over this timeframe, though there is some uncertainty as to when exactly the strongest winds aloft move through. Should they be favorably timed with diurnal mixing, a stronger wind gust scenario would play out. On the other hand if the strongest winds aloft move in overnight, widespread strong wind gusts would be less likely. At this point the probability for a 58 mph gust is largely at or above 20% for most locations across the region Saturday and slightly lower for Sunday. Once guidance can narrow down the timeframe when these stronger winds aloft move through, I'd expect these probabilities to increase for one day and decrease for the other. -AM && .AVIATION... 28/12Z TAF Period A few rain/snow showers will affect the CWA early this evening, but the probability of a shower at a terminal is quite low. By 06z most showers and breezy wind conditions should have diminished. VFR conditions expected across the CWA on Tue. Mountains/passes will be obscured for a few hours this evening. Brusda && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 27 49 32 59 / 10 0 0 0 CTB 24 47 28 53 / 0 0 0 10 HLN 26 47 27 56 / 10 0 0 0 BZN 19 44 21 55 / 10 0 0 0 WYS 9 35 12 45 / 10 0 0 0 DLN 17 43 23 54 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 24 50 24 58 / 10 0 0 0 LWT 24 45 26 59 / 10 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls