FXUS65 KTFX 271138 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 538 AM MDT Mon Oct 27 2025 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Not as windy today across the plains with snow tapering off along and South of I-90 this morning. - Generally windy this week, with Wednesday and Saturday being the windiest days. - Weekend winds may be the strongest of the season thus far. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 353 AM MDT Mon Oct 27 2025/ - Meteorological Overview: After some early morning snowfall across Southwestern Montana for the morning commute today, skies will gradually clear out across North Central and Southwestern Montana today as an upper level trough begins to push east of the area. While skies will be clearing, however, winds will pick back up across the plains, though they will not be as gusty as they were on Sunday. Upper level ridging will briefly build into the area for Tuesday, which will result in one of the quieter weather days of the upcoming week before another quick moving trough pushes through Wednesday. As the upper level trough pushes through, a lee trough will develop in Southern Alberta, which will help to bring some strong winds aloft down to the surface, particularly along the Rocky Mountain Front, where a few gusts to 60 mph are possible. Behind this trough, upper level ridging will once again build back into the area for Thursday and Friday, bringing another brief period of more tranquil but still a bit breezy weather to North Central and Southwestern Montana. However, yet another weather system will look to push into the area for the weekend. This system will likely be one of the stronger wind events that we have seen so far this season, with widespread wind gusts over 60 mph possible. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: Weekend Winds: While uncertainty remains with our weekend weather system, some details are gradually coming into better focus. Ensembles seem to be fairly consistent on bringing widespread winds to the area Saturday and/or Sunday, with many areas seeing at least some risk of 60 mph winds across the plains. NBM probabilities corroborate this, with both the operational and experimental models showing most cities across North Central and Southwestern Montana with at least a 30% chance of 55 mph winds and a 20% chance of 65 mph on Saturday. And while a minor point, some precipitation will be possible with this system, though any appreciable precipitation will likely be limited to the Continental Divide. Ludwig && .AVIATION... 27/12Z TAF Period KBZN, KEKS, KWYS: Expect periods of -SN to bring a mix of MVFR to IFR visibility and ceilings through 16z or so before skies begin to clear. Expect generally VFR conditions after 16z at KEKS and KBZN, though MVFR ceilings will linger a bit longer at KWYS, along with some mountain obscuration. KHLN, KGTF, KCTB, KHVR, KLWT: VFR but breezy conditions are expected across the area over the next 24 hours, with just a 20% chance of a brief SHSN at KHLN through 15z. Winds will be light early this morning (perhaps with some LLWS due to increasing winds above the inversion) before increasing at the surface once mixing begins. Ludwig && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 48 26 49 31 / 10 0 0 0 CTB 45 24 46 27 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 45 26 47 26 / 20 0 0 0 BZN 43 18 44 20 / 60 0 0 0 WYS 34 8 35 11 / 80 0 0 0 DLN 40 16 43 22 / 20 0 0 0 HVR 52 25 50 24 / 10 10 0 0 LWT 45 24 44 24 / 20 10 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM MDT this morning for Beaverhead and Western Madison below 6000ft-Big Belt, Bridger and Castle Mountains-Gallatin Valley-Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains-Madison River Valley-Missouri Headwaters-Northwest Beaverhead County-Ruby Mountains and Southern Beaverhead Mountains. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls