FXUS65 KTFX 221735 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1135 AM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Some morning fog over Central MT and light snow showers in the Havre area, otherwise a seasonable March day expected. - Above normal temperatures continue for the first half of the week, but it turns windy by Wednesday. && .UPDATE... /Issued 650 AM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026/ A small update was posted to account for latest trends, largely related to patchy fog this morning. While some fog remains, it is patchy in nature in most areas. As a result, the Dense Fog Advisory was canceled a bit early. No mentionable updates were made otherwise. -AM && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 650 AM MDT Sun Mar 22 2026/ - Meteorological Overview: Early today, light snow showers are affecting the Havre/Harlem areas, while areas of dense fog are affecting the Stanford/Lewistown areas because of the recent precipitation. A dense fog advisory will continue until 9 AM for now for Central MT, but it might end up being cancelled a bit early. A westerly flow aloft is currently over the CWA this morning, but expect an upper level ridge to build over the Northern Rockies early this week. This will allow above normal temperatures to continue for the first half of the work week. Additionally, the chance for any precipitation will be quite low, other than a passing shower through Wed. The main impactful weather this week will be another round of strong winds, mostly on Wed over North Central MT. The time period of high winds looks to be rather short compared to recent event, never the less high wind statements will likely need to be issued early this week. For late in the week and into next weekend, after a cool day on Thursday, mild temperatures and dry conditions return. Next weekend is looking mostly dry and mild, as another upper level ridge develops over the Northern Rockies. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: The main concern this week will be the potential for strong winds on Wednesday. Right now there is a 90 percent chance of strong winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and in the Cut Bank area by Wednesday. Further east, there is about a 60 percent for strong winds along the Highway 2 corridor from Shelby to Harlem, and then across Central MT from Great Falls to Lewistown. In terms of snowfall, most of the snow accumulations this week will be confined to the northern Rockies/Glacier Park region. Snow levels will be high to start the week, so the precipitation will likely begin as rain, even at higher elevations. Snow levels will lower by Wed, and there is an 80 percent chance of snow accumulations above 2 inches over the Northern Rockies Tue into Wed. Overall, I am not expecting significant snow accumulations this week, even in the mountains. Brusda && .AVIATION... 22/18Z TAF Period. VFR conditions prevail at all north-central and southwest MT terminals through the TAF period. A moderate westerly flow aloft persists across the Northern Rockies and MT with initially little or no cloud-cover giving way to a gradual increase in mid-high level clouds from west to east tonight. Somewhat breezy (gusts 20-30kt) west to northwest winds will affect most terminals as atmospheric mixing increases this afternoon before winds subside this evening. Hoenisch && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 56 31 61 38 / 0 0 0 0 CTB 52 23 55 30 / 0 0 0 0 HLN 59 30 63 37 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 60 31 67 38 / 0 0 0 0 WYS 51 20 58 30 / 0 0 0 0 DLN 63 33 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 55 27 57 30 / 0 0 0 0 LWT 53 29 59 35 / 0 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$the http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls