FXUS65 KTFX 220543 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1143 PM MDT Sat Mar 21 2026 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Some morning fog over Central MT, otherwise a seasonable March day expected. - Above normal temperatures continue for the first half of the week, but it turns windy by Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... - Meteorological Overview: Early today, areas of fog are affecting the Stanford/Lewistown areas because of the recent precipitation. It is possible a small area dense fog advisory might be needed for portions of Central MT early this morning. A westerly flow aloft is currently over the CWA this morning, but expect an upper level ridge to build over the Northern Rockies early this week. This will allow above normal temperatures to continue for the first half of the work week. Additionally, the chance for any precipitation will be quite low, other than a passing shower through Wed. The main impactful weather this week will be another round of strong winds, mostly on Wed over North Central MT. The time period of high winds looks to be rather short compared to recent event, never the less high wind statements will likely need to be issued early this week. For late in the week and into next weekend, after a cool day on Thursday, mild temperatures and dry conditions return. Next weekend is looking mostly dry and mild, as another upper level ridge develops over the Northern Rockies. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: The main concern this week will be the potential for strong winds on Wednesday. Right now there is a 90 percent chance of strong winds along the Rocky Mountain Front and in the Cut Bank area by Wednesday. Further east, there is about a 60 percent for strong winds along the Highway 2 corridor from Shelby to Harlem, and then across Central MT from Great Falls to Lewistown. In terms of snowfall, most of the snow accumulations this week will be confined to the northern Rockies/Glacier Park region. Snow levels will be high to start the week, so the precipitation will likely begin as rain, even at higher elevations. Snow levels will lower by Wed, and there is an 80 percent chance of snow accumulations above 2 inches over the Northern Rockies Tue into Wed. Overall, I am not expecting significant snow accumulations this week, even in the mountains. Brusda && .AVIATION... 22/06Z TAF Period. Scattered to broken low-VFR CIGS will continue across the KEKS, KBZN, and KHLN terminals through 08-10z Sunday thereafter VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the remainder of the TAF period. Further north over the plains of Central and North Central Montana IFR to MVFR conditions are generally expected due to low CIGS; however, where fog develops on the edge of these low CIGS VLIFR to LIFR VIS is likely. At this time the KLWT terminal is expected to continue at VLIFR to LIFR through 13z Sunday before increasing southwest winds help to scour out the low level moisture. While fog can't be ruled out at the KCTB and KGTF terminals prior to southwest winds increasing the window for this opportunity is short, generally between 06-09z Sunday. - Moldan && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 30 56 31 61 / 10 0 0 0 CTB 27 52 23 55 / 10 0 0 0 HLN 31 59 30 63 / 0 0 0 0 BZN 28 60 31 67 / 10 0 0 0 WYS 25 51 20 58 / 10 0 0 0 DLN 29 63 33 68 / 0 0 0 0 HVR 27 55 27 57 / 30 0 0 0 LWT 28 53 29 59 / 20 0 0 0 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls