FXUS65 KTFX 090954

AFDTFX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Great Falls MT

354 AM MDT Fri May 9 2025



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Warmer, with dry conditions today.



- Continues warming, with isolated severe storms Saturday

  afternoon.



- Thunderstorms continue into Sunday, with a spring storm possible

  early next week, along with cooler temperatures.



&&



.DISCUSSION...



 - Meteorological Overview:

With an upper level ridge of high pressure building over the CWA

today, expect quiet conditions, along with the continued warming

trend. On Saturday, expect afternoon temperatures to continue to

warm, with some record high afternoon temperatures possible.

Additionally, an upper level disturbance will move from southwest

to northeast through the CWA during the late afternoon and evening

hours. With inverted V soundings, combined with some instability,

a few severe storms are possible. The latest SPC HREF progs some

storms producing wind gusts over 60 mph. Additionally, some storms

will produce little rainfall.



On Sunday, the upper level ridge begins to break down, thus it

will not be as warm. Expect several upper level disturbances to

move through the CWA throughout the day. Some storms could be on

the strong side once again.



For early next week, both the EC/GFS continue to prog a spring

storm to move through the CWA. Right now, it seems the southern

and central portions of the CWA would be the most favored area,

but any shift to the north would increase the chance for heavier

precipitation northward. Additionally, the airmass will continue 

to cool, especially at higher elevations. Thus snow is looking 

likely for mountain areas above 7000 feet. There is the chance 

snow levels could be lower at times during overnight periods or 

during periods of heavier precipitation. Expect scattered showers

to continue for the later half of next week, along with a very 

slow warming trend.



 - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios:

The main concern is the thunderstorm potential on Saturday. There

currently is a marginal risk for severe storms over a good portion

of the CWA on Saturday. The main impact from any severe storms

will be gusty winds, but some hail can't be ruled out. Overall,

pops are generally on the low side at this time for Saturday, as

precipitation amounts are expected to remain low.



On Sunday, it will not be as warm, but there will still be enough

instability for a few strong storms. Again the main threat from

any stronger storms on Sunday will be gusty winds and hail.



For the spring storm potential early next week, overall this storm

looks fairly similar to the recent spring storm earlier this week.

Snow will fall at higher elevations in the mountains, with a good

rainfall at lower elevations. Rainfall amounts around one inch

look reasonable across much of Central and Southwest MT with this

system, at this time. Brusda



&&



.AVIATION...

09/12Z TAF



Other than some passing mid/high level clouds, VFR conditions will

prevail across the CWA through the period. Brusda



Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation 

weather and hazard information.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

GTF  80  50  87  51 /   0   0  20  30 

CTB  77  46  82  48 /   0   0  10  20 

HLN  82  50  86  53 /   0   0  30  20 

BZN  78  46  83  50 /   0   0  10  20 

WYS  71  34  74  42 /   0   0   0  20 

DLN  76  46  81  50 /   0   0  10  10 

HVR  83  49  90  50 /   0   0  10  40 

LWT  77  52  83  53 /   0   0  10  40 



&&



.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls