FXUS65 KTFX 070845

AFDTFX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Great Falls MT

245 AM MDT Thu May 7 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



 - Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms track across the 

   region today and again Friday night through early Saturday. 



 - Temperatures fluctuate around seasonal averages through 

   Saturday.  



 - An extended period of warmer temperatures and overall dry 

   conditions begins Sunday and likely persists into next week. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...



Showers will continue to track southeast across primarily central MT 

this morning beneath a shortwave disturbance in northwest flow aloft 

and favorable positioning of an upper level jet diving south through 

the Northern Rockies. The initial shortwave exits by mid-day with

skies partially clearing, but this will also lead to surface 

heating and afternoon development of widely scattered showers and 

perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms. 



Drier conditions prevail tonight through most of the day on Friday 

as upper level ridging briefly shifts inland from the west coast 

before another shortwave disturbance moving over the ridge passes

through the Northern Rockies and MT Friday night through Saturday.

Another round of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms move 

across the region Friday night and Saturday with moisture tracking

a bit further north than the system affecting the region this 

morning, focusing a grater coverage of showers across north- 

central MT primarily north and east of Great Falls. 



Upper level ridging becomes more firmly established across the 

interior Western US late this weekend through much of next week, 

supporting an extended period of above average temperatures and 

mainly dry conditions beginning Sunday. Weather disturbances moving 

over the ridge across Canada next week could bring some breezy 

conditions at times but only minor cooling. Hoenisch 



&&



.AVIATION... 

07/06Z TAF Period 



Expect scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight. 

For now, I kept thunderstorms limited to the Helena/West

Yellowstone terminals, but some lightning might be close at other

terminals before 12z. Surface winds increase out of the northwest

for most sites during the day. Some scattered showers will 

continue during the day as well, with some minor impacts possible

to terminal sites. Mountains/passes will be obscured until late

Thu afternoon. Brusda



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

GTF  68  43  74  50 /  60  30  10  10 

CTB  68  40  73  45 /  20  20  20  30 

HLN  68  41  75  47 /  40  20   0   0 

BZN  68  38  72  41 /  20  10   0   0 

WYS  64  31  68  36 /  10   0   0  10 

DLN  70  38  72  40 /   0   0   0   0 

HVR  73  39  78  44 /  30  10  10  40 

LWT  64  38  70  44 /  60  30  10  70 



&&



.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls