FXUS65 KTFX 030531 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 1131 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 Aviation Section Updated. .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening. Some storms could produce strong wind gusts. - One more warm day on Thursday before temperatures turn cooler for July 4th and Saturday. - Potential for a good rainfall July 4th into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... /Issued 322 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025/ - Meteorological Overview: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move from southwest to northeast through the CWA this evening. The main impact from the storms will be the potential for strong wind gusts and lightning. On Thursday, conditions will be similar to today, with another round of showers/thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Again there is the potential that a few storms could produce a few strong wind gusts. It will continue to be warm on Thursday afternoon before it starts to cool down on Friday. For Friday into Saturday, a slow moving upper level trof will move into Western MT. This will allow for a more widespread rainfall to develop on July 4th afternoon and evening along the divide and across Southwest MT, this area of precipitation moving northward into Central MT by Friday evening. The GFS forecast models continue to show the potential for a widespread reasonable rainfall with this system. The timing of the rainfall could impact outdoor firework displays on Friday over a good portion of the CWA. For Saturday expect the rainfall to generally continue to push northward and end from south to north. Areas along the Hi-Line will be last to diminish with most of the rainfall ending by Saturday evening. Sunday will be a nice day across the CWA, with drier/warmer conditions. A warming trend then continues from Monday through Wednesday of next week, with afternoon highs climbing through the 80s. The chance for storms later next week will become quite low by the middle of next week. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: The big concerns is the potential for severe storms this evening. With dry air in place at lower elevations, strong wind gusts will be possible from any TS. Secondly, the potential for a widespread rainfall Friday afternoon into Saturday. The GFS has over 1 inch of precipitation falling along the divide and about 0.50 to 1 inch falling along the I-15 corridor from Helena to Cut Bank. The higher amounts might be a bit widespread, but the potential for a several hour rainfall and areas receiving around 0.50 inch rainfall is looking more likely. Brusda && .AVIATION... 03/06Z TAF Period Widely scattered showers/virga and a few thunderstorms will continue to move from southwest to northeast through 03/12Z, mostly over Central and North- central Montana. Gusty and erratic winds will be the primary impact. The focus for showers and thunderstorms will then shift farther south on Thursday, mostly impacting Southwest Montana and central areas along and south of a KHLN to KLWT line. The stronger cores will produce erratic, gusty winds, brief downpours, and isolated instances of hail. Westerly winds will become gusty at times over the plains on Thursday, especially along the Rocky Mountain Front where gusts over 30 kts will be common. - RCG Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 60 90 55 81 / 30 10 10 40 CTB 58 82 48 76 / 20 10 0 10 HLN 60 87 57 78 / 20 30 20 60 BZN 55 91 53 81 / 20 50 30 70 WYS 47 78 44 73 / 10 50 50 80 DLN 54 83 51 74 / 20 70 30 80 HVR 61 94 53 84 / 30 0 10 20 LWT 57 84 55 78 / 40 20 30 40 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls