FXUS65 KTFX 022122 AFDTFX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 322 PM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms through this evening. Some storms could produce strong wind gusts. - One more warm day on Thursday before temperatures turn cooler for July 4th and Saturday. - Potential for a good rainfall July 4th into Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... - Meteorological Overview: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will move from southwest to northeast through the CWA this evening. The main impact from the storms will be the potential for strong wind gusts and lightning. On Thursday, conditions will be similar to today, with another round of showers/thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Again there is the potential that a few storms could produce a few strong wind gusts. It will continue to be warm on Thursday afternoon before it starts to cool down on Friday. For Friday into Saturday, a slow moving upper level trof will move into Western MT. This will allow for a more widespread rainfall to develop on July 4th afternoon and evening along the divide and across Southwest MT, this area of precipitation moving northward into Central MT by Friday evening. The GFS forecast models continue to show the potential for a widespread reasonable rainfall with this system. The timing of the rainfall could impact outdoor firework displays on Friday over a good portion of the CWA. For Saturday expect the rainfall to generally continue to push northward and end from south to north. Areas along the Hi-Line will be last to diminish with most of the rainfall ending by Saturday evening. Sunday will be a nice day across the CWA, with drier/warmer conditions. A warming trend then continues from Monday through Wednesday of next week, with afternoon highs climbing through the 80s. The chance for storms later next week will become quite low by the middle of next week. - Forecast Confidence & Scenarios: The big concerns is the potential for severe storms this evening. With dry air in place at lower elevations, strong wind gusts will be possible from any TS. Secondly, the potential for a widespread rainfall Friday afternoon into Saturday. The GFS has over 1 inch of precipitation falling along the divide and about 0.50 to 1 inch falling along the I-15 corridor from Helena to Cut Bank. The higher amounts might be a bit widespread, but the potential for a several hour rainfall and areas receiving around 0.50 inch rainfall is looking more likely. Brusda && .AVIATION... 03/00Z TAF Period Scattered showers/thunderstorms will affect much of the CWA through about 04z Thu before slowly beginning to diminish. Strong wind gusts will be the main impact from any thunderstorm. Expect similar conditions once again Thursday, with afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail in between storms. Brusda Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 60 90 56 81 / 20 10 10 40 CTB 58 83 50 76 / 10 10 0 10 HLN 59 87 57 78 / 20 30 20 60 BZN 55 88 53 81 / 20 50 30 70 WYS 47 76 43 73 / 10 40 50 80 DLN 54 82 50 74 / 20 70 30 80 HVR 61 93 54 84 / 20 0 10 20 LWT 57 84 56 78 / 40 20 30 40 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls