FXUS65 KRIW 070447

AFDRIW



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Riverton WY

1047 PM MDT Wed May 6 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Cool today, with highs in the low-to-mid 50s.



- Scattered showers move into northwest Wyoming tonight, with

  light rain/mountain snow chances (15-40 percent) across 

  northern and central Wyoming through Thursday.

 

- Dry and warming trend into the weekend and early next week.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 1236 PM MDT Wed May 6 2026



No notable changes with this update. Today remains on the cool side, 

with highs in the low-to-mid 50s for most of the area. Lows tonight 

should remain above freezing for east of Divide locations, except in 

low-lying areas where near 30 degrees is possible. A shortwave moves 

through the northwest flow tonight, bringing some light rain showers 

or light mountain snow showers to northern Wyoming, spreading to 

central areas Thursday morning and afternoon, when an isolated 

thunderstorm is also possible. Outside a quick system Saturday, the 

weekend looks to remain mostly dry, with warming temperatures. Early 

next week could see 80s across the area.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 200 AM MDT Wed May 6 2026



IR currently depicts ample cloud cover across the southern half

of the CWA with improved conditions further north. The closed

upper level low has embedded into the overall L/W trough pattern

with a positive oriented tilt across the Dakotas to the Rockies

with the PFJ dipping around its base. A few scattered snow

showers linger across mainly eastward Sweetwater County

extending from South Pass/Sweetwater Station but will slowly

diminish as it exits to the southeast by sunrise Wednesday

morning. Cold temperatures in the hard freeze warning criteria

category for Wednesday morning for lower elevations east of the

Divide before recovering to seasonable temperatures by

afternoon. 



Otherwise, expect upper level ridging to start building in later

Wednesday, giving way to northwest flow aloft and ample 

convergence. Improved sky conditions and relatively light winds 

through the rest of Wednesday and into Thursday. A subtle 

shortwave propagates down the ridge, bringing some scattered 

showers for northeastern portions of the CWA, mainly for parts 

of the Bighorn Basin and mountains but minimal, if any, impacts

expected. The pattern continues with northwest flow aloft with 

the PFJ remaining in far reaches of the northeast part of the 

state with another shortwave effecting the northeastern CWA 

again Saturday afternoon/evening. Minimal impacts expected once 

again but the overall pattern looks to be a mostly dry and 

warming trend into the weekend and next week. Ridging and 

northwest flow aloft continue with no significant weather 

systems of note on the horizon at this point in time.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...

Issued at 1041 PM MDT Wed May 6 2026



Light showers have started to move into far NW WY this evening,

and will bring a small chance at KCOD/KWRL and KJAC during the

next few hours. A couple strikes of lightning are noted to the

northwest in MT, so this is possible as this round of showers

moves through overnight. A brief period of clearing skies is

expected Thursday morning, before another round of showers and 

thunderstorms bubbles up east of the Divide. With better 

possibility of TS during peak heating, have added some TEMPO 

thunder groups for KCOD/KWRL and KCPR. There is an outside 

chance some thunder may approach KRIW/KLND as well, but 

confidence is not currently high they will drift this far 

south, so have left out for now. All showers will be dissipating

around 00Z/08 with loss of daytime heating.



Sites west of the Divide will not see showers tomorrow, with

only issue being gusty winds. KJAC will be gusting near 20kts,

KBPI/KPNA gusting 25kts, and KRKS gusting 35 to 40kts through

the afternoon. Winds will relax around sunset Thursday evening.



Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC 

for the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.



&&



.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



UPDATE...Wittmann

DISCUSSION...Lowe

AVIATION...Straub