FXUS65 KRIW 030443

AFDRIW



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Riverton WY

943 PM MST Mon Feb 2 2026



.KEY MESSAGES...



- Warmer than average temperatures continue through the next

  week with mainly dry conditions.



- A weak weather system sweeps by to the northeast tonight into

  Tuesday morning. A brief round of very light snow is possible

  for the northern Bighorn Mountains, with a light rain/snow mix

  for northern Johnson County.



&&



.UPDATE...

Issued at 123 PM MST Mon Feb 2 2026



Not much, if any, change to the ongoing forecast through the

next 24 hours or so. The next weak weather system still on track

for late tonight and Tuesday morning, with the only impacts

being some light snow for the Bighorn Range. Some precip may be

able to get to the sfc for northern Johnson County Tuesday

morning, but any precip will be a mix of rain and snow, with

minimal to no accumulation.



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 1205 AM MST Mon Feb 2 2026



Upper level ridging continues to dominate and will for the next

7 days. However, the ridge does break down some as a shortwave

propagates down passing to the northeast Monday afternoon and

into the overnight hours. As a result, some snow showers likely

across northern parts of the CWA after sunset to include

Yellowstone, northern Absarokas, and in particular the northern

Bighorns that will be closer to the PVA anomaly over the 

northern Great Plains and better moisture content. However, 

accumulations will still be minimal with 1 to 2 inches expected 

for the highest of the elevations with no impacts to the passes.

The main impact will be a more widespread increase to the winds

with the passing system and associated weak frontal boundary as

it passes through the afternoon. Highest wind speeds for the 

Cody Foothills due to funneling of the westerly winds along with

the wind corridor of Sweetwater to Natrona Counties and further

north to Buffalo and Johnson County. 30 to 40 mph will be had 

for these areas until after FROPA and will quickly diminish 

before sunset Monday evening. The only other minor impact will 

be increased cloud cover and temperatures being not as warm by a

few degrees for Tuesday afternoon highs but still above average

for this time of year.



Once the aforementioned system passes and clouds clear later on

Tuesday, expect the upper level ridge to build in once again 

with stronger convergence aloft shifting more east and over the 

Rockies. This will give way to dry conditions through the end of

the work week and the weekend with temperatures up to 10 to 20 

degrees warmer than average for this time of year, higher east 

of the Divide. 



Beyond the weekend, longer term model solutions do bring in a

more potent and widespread system as the PFJ dips south across

the state and points south. This will open the Pacific northwest

moisture back in to play with the westerly flow aloft. With this

regime, expect snow for western mountains and possibly valleys,

not reaching to the east outside of the Bighorns. However, the

latest runs have dipped it a bit further south that could bring

a more south of westerly flow that could open it up more to

southeastern zones. Time will tell, but cooler more seasonable

temperatures will be had for next week going forward into the

middle portions of the month.



&&



.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...

Issued at 942 PM MST Mon Feb 2 2026



VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period. A weak 

shortwave will move through Tuesday, leading to increased clouds and 

gusty winds. No precipitation is expected at terminals, though the 

northern Wyoming mountains will see occasional light showers at 

times. Some mountain obscuration is possible in the KCOD, KWRL, and 

KJAC vicinity due to this, most likely between 11Z and 18Z. 

Otherwise, most terminalswill see winds increase and shift 

northerly around 18Z as a weak cold front drops south. This will 

bring lower VFR ceilings to KCOD and KWRL, with generally scattered 

cloud decks elsewhere.



Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for 

the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.



&&



.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.



&&



$$



UPDATE...Straub

DISCUSSION...Lowe

AVIATION...Myers